Charting Africa’s Strategic Response to Trump’s Tariff War

This policy brief by the Institute for Economic Justice analyzes the impact of President Donald Trump's second administration's tariff policies on African nations and proposes a strategic response based on rerouting trade, subverting US policy through industrialization, and collective negotiation.

• The Trump administration's tariff policies are described as a comprehensive trade war that functions as a significant tax increase on American consumers and lacks strategic targeting for industrialization. Rather than protecting 'infant industries', the indiscriminate application of tariffs is expected to increase inflation in the United States and weaken the global competitiveness of its existing industries.
• The 'reciprocal tariffs' disproportionately affect developing countries that contribute very little to the US trade deficit. For example, tariffs announced on 2 April 2025 ranged from 11% for Cameroon to 50% for Lesotho, despite 28 targeted nations accounting for less than 0.1% of the total US trade deficit. For 36 developing countries, these tariffs were projected to generate less than 1% of existing US tariff revenues.
• Revised tariffs announced on 1 August 2025 have not eliminated economic distress in Africa. While Lesotho's textile tariff was reduced from 50% to 15%, job losses for approximately 30,000 workers remain a risk. South Africa, Algeria (30%), Tunisia (25%), and Libya (30%) face the highest tariffs on the continent, with South Africa's 30% tariff estimated by the Reserve Bank to potentially cause 100,000 job losses in manufacturing, automotive, and agriculture.
• The Trump Doctrine views the decline of US economic supremacy—attributed to free trade principles and multilateral bodies like the WTO, IMF, and World Bank—as a national security risk. This decline is framed against the 'Rise of the rest', specifically China and Russia, and the emergence of institutions like BRICS that challenge the Bretton Woods system through efforts such as de-dollarisation.
• Other regions have already responded to US trade policies using various strategies. China has used retaliatory tariffs and strategic industrial policy, including export controls on critical minerals and forced technological transfer. Asian nations are rerouting trade through the RCEP and ASEAN frameworks, leading to the 'United States Plus One' strategy where trade is diverted away from the US, benefiting countries like Vietnam (electronics) and Indonesia (electric vehicles).
• The brief proposes a 'Reroute' strategy for Africa: internally, by expediting the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) through customs harmonisation and a continental payment system; and internationally, by diversifying BRICS partners. Currently, China constitutes 65% of Africa-BRICS trade, while India (31%), Brazil (3.6%), and Russia (0.6%) remain largely untapped.
• A 'Subvert' strategy is recommended through targeted import substitution industrialisation (ISI) in sectors with high value addition and import replacement potential. Examples include textiles (underutilised in Ethiopia, Kenya, Mauritius, and South Africa) and processed cocoa (77% of which is currently imported). Additionally, Africa should form 'critical minerals clubs' to make mineral access contingent on local processing and technology transfer.
• The brief advocates for a 'Negotiation' strategy centered on a collective bargaining platform within the African Union or regional economic communities. This is intended to prevent external trading partners from exploiting divisions by negotiating with individual countries and to maximize continental gains from trade.

APA

Baloyi, B. (n.d.). Charting Africa’s Strategic Response to Trump’s Tariff War. Institute for Economic Justice. https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/IEJ-Policy-Brief-_-Trade-and-tariffs.pdf

Chicago

Baloyi, Basani. Charting Africa’s Strategic Response to Trump’s Tariff War. Institute for Economic Justice, n.d. https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/IEJ-Policy-Brief-_-Trade-and-tariffs.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Baloyi |first1=Basani |title=Charting Africa’s Strategic Response to Trump’s Tariff War |publisher=Institute for Economic Justice |url=https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/IEJ-Policy-Brief-_-Trade-and-tariffs.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{baloyindcharting, author = {Baloyi, Basani}, title = {{Charting Africa’s Strategic Response to Trump’s Tariff War}}, institution = {Institute for Economic Justice}, url = {https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/IEJ-Policy-Brief-_-Trade-and-tariffs.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }