Green in the Elysée: Pulling off a long shot

The author argues that while a Green candidate alone cannot win the 2022 French presidential election, they could reach the run-off by uniting Greens and social democrats into a single bloc. By targeting a potential constituency of 10 million left-leaning voters and framing the ecological transition as part of a progressive tradition of protection and solidarity, a Green-led coalition could potentially secure the 8 million votes necessary to challenge the dominant candidates, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen.

• The 2022 French presidential election is projected to be dominated by Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, with no candidate from the left or Green movements polling above 10 per cent at the time of writing.
• To reach the second round of the election, a Green candidate would need to secure at least 8 million votes, which is the estimated lowest electoral potential for Marine Le Pen.
• A Green candidate running alone is unlikely to reach the run-off, as the high watermark for a Green candidate was 3 million votes in the 2019 European elections, 5 million short of the required target.
• There is a hypothetical potential of over 10 million votes for a combined green and mainstream left candidate, based on the 2012 and 2017 voting patterns of supporters of François Hollande, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and Benoît Hamon.
• The author suggests that a successful strategy requires the Socialists and Greens to agree on a single candidate and develop a narrative that combines ecological transition with social justice, collective solidarity, and the social-democratic tradition.
• The COVID-19 pandemic and the global ecological crisis are identified as catalysts that increase the public's openness to 'green answers' and a vision for a future that is both different and stable.

APA

Marie, M. (2021). Green in the Elysée: Pulling off a long shot. Green European Journal. https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/green-in-the-elysee-pulling-off-a-long-shot/

Chicago

Marie, Mickaël. Green in the Elysée: Pulling off a long shot. Green European Journal, 2021. https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/green-in-the-elysee-pulling-off-a-long-shot/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Marie |first1=Mickaël |title=Green in the Elysée: Pulling off a long shot |publisher=Green European Journal |date=18 June 2021 |url=https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/green-in-the-elysee-pulling-off-a-long-shot/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{marie2021green, author = {Marie, Mickaël}, title = {{Green in the Elysée: Pulling off a long shot}}, institution = {Green European Journal}, year = {2021}, month = jun, url = {https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/green-in-the-elysee-pulling-off-a-long-shot/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }