Drifting toward disaster?

The report argues that the EU ETS has failed to drive domestic emissions reductions due to a cap set against inflated projections and a flood of low-quality offsets. It finds that the system is now cancelling out approximately 700 million tonnes of abatement from other EU policies. The author recommends the permanent removal of 1.7 billion allowances from Phase 3 auctions to restore environmental integrity and increase Europe's 2020 climate target to 30% below 1990 levels.

• The EU ETS is currently delivering negative net emissions reductions, effectively cancelling out nearly 700 million tonnes of abatement achieved by other European policies in the Climate and Energy package.
• Manufacturing sectors have been significantly oversupplied with allowances; all manufacturing sectors were oversupplied in Phase 2, and as a group, they are likely to accrue new surpluses through Phase 3.
• The use of offsets in the EU ETS has potentially led some EU Member States, including the EU15, Poland, and Slovenia, to breach the supplementarity threshold of the Kyoto Protocol.
• Economic growth has decoupled from emissions in the EU and specifically in Poland, where GDP doubled while emissions declined almost 30% since 1988.
• The report recommends the permanent removal of at least 1.7 billion allowances from Phase 3 auctions: 700 million to ensure minimum domestic reductions and 1 billion to correct for non-additional Phase 2 offsets.
• Europe's current emissions pathway is unsustainable; based on an effort-sharing model, the EU will exhaust its fair share of the global carbon space by 2033 if it does not increase ambition.

APA

Morris, D., Crow, L., Elsworth, R., MacDonald, P., & Watson, L. (2013). Drifting toward disaster? Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2020/03/Drifting_Towards_Disaster-2013.pdf

Chicago

Morris, Damien, Louise Crow, Rob Elsworth, Phil MacDonald, and Laurence Watson. Drifting toward disaster? Ember, 2013. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2020/03/Drifting_Towards_Disaster-2013.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Morris |first1=Damien |last2=Crow |first2=Louise |last3=Elsworth |first3=Rob |last4=MacDonald |first4=Phil |last5=Watson |first5=Laurence |title=Drifting toward disaster? |publisher=Ember |date=25 June 2013 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2020/03/Drifting_Towards_Disaster-2013.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{morris2013drifting, author = {Morris, Damien and Crow, Louise and Elsworth, Rob and MacDonald, Phil and Watson, Laurence}, title = {{Drifting toward disaster?}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2013}, month = jun, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2020/03/Drifting_Towards_Disaster-2013.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }