Gambling with Biomass: Reliance on BECCS undermines National Grid’s net-zero scenarios

Ember argues that National Grid ESO's FES 2020 scenarios for achieving net-zero by 2050 are undermined by an over-reliance on BECCS to offset residual emissions. The briefing highlights that the required scale of BECCS would necessitate converting 1Mha of UK agricultural land to energy crops and potentially 200Mha globally, posing significant risks to biodiversity and food security. Ember contends that the assumption of 'instant' negative emissions is flawed and that relying on BECCS creates a moral hazard, potentially discouraging more ambitious decarbonisation efforts in difficult sectors like aviation and agriculture.

• National Grid ESO's FES 2020 net-zero scenarios are entirely dependent on BECCS to offset residual economy-wide emissions of approximately 52MtCO2 by 2050 and to provide between 8% and 11% of the UK's total electricity supply.
• The land-use requirements for BECCS in FES 2020 are extensive, requiring the conversion of 1Mha of UK land (about 7% of agricultural land) to energy crops. The most ambitious scenario would further require the global conversion of 200Mha of land, an area comparable in size to Greenland.
• The FES 2020 models assume BECCS provides immediate negative emissions, but Ember argues this is unlikely because inherently carbon-neutral forestry wastes are limited and energy crops require significant time to grow and compensate for initial emissions from land-use change and chemicals.
• Relying on BECCS creates a 'moral hazard' by potentially allowing policy-makers to avoid necessary societal decarbonisation and behavioural changes in hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation and agriculture.
• Ember suggests that using the 1Mha of land for natural forests instead of BECCS energy crops would provide more reliable carbon removals, noting that expanding UK forests by 30,000ha annually would contribute 14 MtCO2 of removals per year by 2050.
• The timing of BECCS deployment in FES 2020 coincides with the end of biomass subsidies for Drax, suggesting the model may be influenced by existing infrastructure seeking a new business model rather than optimal carbon mitigation.

APA

Ember (2020). Gambling with Biomass: Reliance on BECCS undermines National Grid’s net-zero scenarios. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/gambling-with-biomass-reliance-on-beccs-undermines-national-grids-net-zero-scenarios

Chicago

Ember. Gambling with Biomass: Reliance on BECCS undermines National Grid’s net-zero scenarios. 2020. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/gambling-with-biomass-reliance-on-beccs-undermines-national-grids-net-zero-scenarios.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=Gambling with Biomass: Reliance on BECCS undermines National Grid’s net-zero scenarios |date=28 October 2020 |url=https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/gambling-with-biomass-reliance-on-beccs-undermines-national-grids-net-zero-scenarios |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2020gambling, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{Gambling with Biomass: Reliance on BECCS undermines National Grid’s net-zero scenarios}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2020}, month = oct, url = {https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/gambling-with-biomass-reliance-on-beccs-undermines-national-grids-net-zero-scenarios}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }