Climate Security Risk Briefers

The report consists of several independent briefers analyzing how climate change acts as a threat multiplier across various domains. Key analyses include the evolution of 'environmental terrorism' from a tactical to a strategic threat, the need to integrate peacebuilding with climate adaptation in fragile regions like the Sahel, and the shifting geopolitics of energy security as the world transitions to renewables. It also assesses specific vulnerabilities of U.S. Space Force infrastructure to sea-level rise and wildfires, the role of digital Earth observation technologies in anticipatory intelligence, and the gendered impacts of climate-induced resource scarcity. Regional case studies focus on the Arctic's changing geopolitical landscape and the influence of media reporting on climate-induced farmer-herder conflicts in Nigeria.

• Environmental terrorism, defined as the intentional harm or deprivation of natural resources to coerce others, is evolving from a tactical tool to a strategic-level concern because climate change is increasing global resource vulnerability.
• Climate change adaptation (CCA) and peacebuilding programs are often designed in silos, which can lead to unintended negative effects in fragile contexts; integrating these sectors can create co-benefits such as improved social cohesion and resilience.
• The transition to renewable energy will democratize energy production and reduce reliance on a few major suppliers, potentially diminishing the geopolitical power of petrostates and shifting the focus of security assets away from protecting international fossil fuel supply chains.
• U.S. Space Force installations face significant climate risks, including wildfires at Vandenberg AFB and sea-level rise at Cape Canaveral AFS and Patrick AFB, which could deny the U.S. assured access to specific space orbits.
• The use of commercial diesel fuel in U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) equipment introduces risks of internal corrosion and engine failure, which could compromise emergency backup power for critical infrastructure during climate-driven disasters.
• Digital ecosystems, including AI and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), are transforming climate security by providing anticipatory intelligence on food and water scarcity to mitigate civil unrest.
• Melting Arctic ice is creating new shipping lanes and exposing energy resources, leading Russia to expand its military presence and China to pursue a 'Polar Silk Road Initiative' to establish itself as a policy rule maker in the region.
• Climate change exacerbates gendered vulnerabilities, as women often bear the primary responsibility for gathering water and energy resources, making them more susceptible to violence and excluding them from land-ownership and financial decisions necessary for adaptation.
• In Nigeria, climate-induced land erosion has fueled conflicts between Fulani herdsmen and farmers; however, the effectiveness of federal mitigation programs like RUGA and NLTP has been undermined by inflammatory media reporting and the rise of state-sponsored militias like Amotekun.
• The U.S. federal government's rigid hiring practices and HR screening processes hinder the recruitment of the multidisciplinary talent needed for climate security, often excluding candidates with non-traditional academic backgrounds.

APA

The Council on Strategic Risks (2021). Climate Security Risk Briefers. https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Climate-Security-Risk-Briefers_Climate-and-Security-Fellows-Program_October-2021-1.pdf

Chicago

The Council on Strategic Risks. Climate Security Risk Briefers. 2021. https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Climate-Security-Risk-Briefers_Climate-and-Security-Fellows-Program_October-2021-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=The Council on Strategic Risks |title=Climate Security Risk Briefers |date=October 2021 |url=https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Climate-Security-Risk-Briefers_Climate-and-Security-Fellows-Program_October-2021-1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{thecouncilonstrategicrisks2021climate, author = {{The Council on Strategic Risks}}, title = {{Climate Security Risk Briefers}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2021}, month = oct, url = {https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Climate-Security-Risk-Briefers_Climate-and-Security-Fellows-Program_October-2021-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }