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This report by Climate Policy Initiative/PUC-RIO and Amazon 2030 analyzes the potential for carbon sequestration through forest restoration in the Brazilian Amazon. It proposes the Reversing Deforestation Mechanism (RDM), a jurisdictional results-based payment system, as a way to mobilize significant investment and align land use with climate goals. The report compares the RDM with other financial mechanisms like JREDD+ and the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), arguing that a complementary approach to conservation, avoided deforestation, and restoration is essential for Brazil to meet its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).

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  • Natural regeneration of deforested areas in the Brazilian Amazon has the potential to capture up to 26 GtCO₂. This potential varies significantly by state, with Pará having the highest potential at 9.6 GtCO₂, followed by Mato Grosso at 7.3 GtCO₂.
  • The Reversing Deforestation Mechanism (RDM) is a jurisdictional, results-based payment system that remunerates net carbon removals. Over a 30-year period, at a carbon price of US$ 50 per ton, the RDM could mobilize up to US$ 784 billion in the Brazilian Amazon.
  • The report identifies a strategic opportunity in the spatial heterogeneity of the Amazon: areas with high carbon capture potential typically have lower agricultural productivity, while areas suitable for agriculture and livestock have lower sequestration capacity. Optimizing land use allows for increased production in cleared areas while restoring forests in high-capture areas.
  • The RDM is presented as a complementary tool alongside JREDD+ (which reduces deforestation) and the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF, which conserves standing forests). While JREDD+ could generate approximately US$ 5 billion and TFFF approximately US$ 26 billion in the Amazon, the RDM's potential is significantly higher at US$ 784 billion over 30 years.
  • Implementing the RDM can help Brazil achieve its new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target of reducing net emissions by 59% to 67% compared to 2005. This is critical because 2023 deforestation alone accounted for 1.06 billion tons of CO₂.
  • Brazil possesses existing technical infrastructure to support the RDM, including satellite monitoring systems such as DETER and PRODES, the MAPBIOMAS project, the Deforestation Alert System (SAD) of IMAZON, and the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR).

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APA
Climate Policy Initiative (n.d.). the-forestclimate-nexus-for-the-brazilian-amazon-2bd3357d7a3fbc03.pdf. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/The-ForestClimate-Nexus-for-the-Brazilian-Amazon.pdf
Chicago
Climate Policy Initiative. the-forestclimate-nexus-for-the-brazilian-amazon-2bd3357d7a3fbc03.pdf. n.d. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/The-ForestClimate-Nexus-for-the-Brazilian-Amazon.pdf.
Wikipedia
{{cite report |author=Climate Policy Initiative |title=the-forestclimate-nexus-for-the-brazilian-amazon-2bd3357d7a3fbc03.pdf |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/The-ForestClimate-Nexus-for-the-Brazilian-Amazon.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}
BibTeX
@techreport{climatepolicyinitiativendtheforestclimatenexusforthebrazilianamazon2bd3357d7a3fbc03pdf, author = {{Climate Policy Initiative}}, title = {{the-forestclimate-nexus-for-the-brazilian-amazon-2bd3357d7a3fbc03.pdf}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/The-ForestClimate-Nexus-for-the-Brazilian-Amazon.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }

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