Rural Settlements and Deforestation in the Amazon

This research paper investigates the impact of state-assisted Rural Settlements on deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon between 2002 and 2014. The authors find that while overall deforestation in the region declined during this period, the area covered by Rural Settlements increased significantly, contributing to approximately 30% of total deforestation in the Amazon Biome by 2014. The study highlights a paradox where 'Special Settlements'—those designed with environmental conditions—were the primary drivers of this impact, particularly in remote areas far from the agricultural expansion frontier.

• Between 2002 and 2014, the area of Rural Settlements in the Amazon region grew by 71%, increasing from 220 thousand square kilometers to 376 thousand square kilometers.
• Rural Settlements are estimated to be responsible for 30% of the total deforestation within the Amazon Biome as of 2014.
• The increase in Rural Settlements was most pronounced in remote areas with high forest coverage and low initial deforestation rates, contradicting claims by the National Institute of Colonization and Agrarian Reform (INCRA) that settlements were only created in already deforested areas.
• Among the different types of settlements, 'Special Settlements'—which are intended for sustainable production or extractive activities—had a positive and statistically significant impact on deforestation, accounting for 15% of the Amazon Biome's total deforestation in 2014.
• The impact of Special Settlements is most significant in the interior of the Amazon, far from the 'deforestation arc' or agricultural expansion frontier, where they are responsible for approximately 20% of deforestation.
• Conventional and Colonization settlements showed a positive correlation with deforestation in OLS estimates, but this relationship became statistically non-significant when controlling for fixed effects, suggesting the correlation is spurious and driven by their location on the agricultural frontier.
• The study notes a technical limitation in the DETER monitoring system, which cannot detect forest clearings smaller than 0.25 square kilometers, potentially making small-scale deforestation by settlers less likely to be caught by law enforcement.
• In the state of Amazonas, the area of Rural Settlements saw a dramatic increase of 202% between 2002 and 2014, rising from 28 thousand to approximately 86 thousand square kilometers.

APA

Assunção, J., & Rocha, R. (2016). Rural Settlements and Deforestation in the Amazon. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Rural_Settlements_and_Deforestation_in_the_Amazon_Working_Paper_CPI.pdf

Chicago

Assunção, Juliano, and Romero Rocha. Rural Settlements and Deforestation in the Amazon. Climate Policy Initiative, 2016. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Rural_Settlements_and_Deforestation_in_the_Amazon_Working_Paper_CPI.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Assunção |first1=Juliano |last2=Rocha |first2=Romero |title=Rural Settlements and Deforestation in the Amazon |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=December 2016 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Rural_Settlements_and_Deforestation_in_the_Amazon_Working_Paper_CPI.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{assuno2016rural, author = {Assunção, Juliano and Rocha, Romero}, title = {{Rural Settlements and Deforestation in the Amazon}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2016}, month = dec, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Rural_Settlements_and_Deforestation_in_the_Amazon_Working_Paper_CPI.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }