A Queda do Desmatamento na Amazônia Brasileira: Preços ou Políticas?

The study analyzes the drivers of reduced deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon from 2000 to 2010, specifically comparing the impact of agricultural prices against conservation policies introduced in 2004 and 2008. Using regression techniques and counterfactual simulation, the research finds that conservation policies were responsible for preventing the deforestation of approximately 62,000 square kilometers between 2005 and 2009. This is equivalent to preserving 620 million tons of stored carbon, valued at an estimated 11.5 billion USD. While crop prices generally correlate positively with deforestation, cattle prices show a more complex, heterogeneous effect. The document concludes that while market conditions played a role, the strategic policy interventions—including improved monitoring via DETER, the expansion of protected areas, and stricter rural credit requirements—were the decisive factors in slowing forest loss.

• Conservation policies implemented in the second half of the 2000-2010 period prevented the deforestation of approximately 62,000 square kilometers between 2005 and 2009, which represents about half of the forest area that would have been cleared without these policies.
• The 2004 policy turning point was marked by the launch of the Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon (PPCDAm), which integrated federal, state, and municipal governments with civil society and improved monitoring through the Real-Time Deforestation Detection System (DETER) and the creation of CEMAM within IBAMA.
• The 2008 policy turning point focused on command, control, and credit, including the prioritization of 36 high-deforestation municipalities for urgent action, streamlined administrative processes for environmental infractions, and new credit policies requiring proof of environmental compliance for agricultural activities in the Amazon biome.
• Agricultural crop prices have a positive causal effect on deforestation, where price increases in a given year lead to higher deforestation between that year and the next, particularly when price changes occur just before planting.
• Cattle prices have a heterogeneous effect on deforestation: while a price increase in one year can aggravate deforestation in the following year (as producers expand pastures for future gains), current high prices can also reduce deforestation pressure as producers increase the supply of cattle for immediate consumption.

APA

Assunção, J., Gandour, C. C. E., & Rocha, R. (2012). A Queda do Desmatamento na Amazônia Brasileira: Preços ou Políticas? Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Deforestacion-Precios-o-Politicas-Sinopsis-Spanish.pdf

Chicago

Assunção, Juliano, Clarissa C. e Gandour, and Rudi Rocha. A Queda do Desmatamento na Amazônia Brasileira: Preços ou Políticas? Climate Policy Initiative, 2012. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Deforestacion-Precios-o-Politicas-Sinopsis-Spanish.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Assunção |first1=Juliano |last2=Gandour |first2=Clarissa C. e |last3=Rocha |first3=Rudi |title=A Queda do Desmatamento na Amazônia Brasileira: Preços ou Políticas? |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=January 2012 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Deforestacion-Precios-o-Politicas-Sinopsis-Spanish.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{assuno2012queda, author = {Assunção, Juliano and Gandour, Clarissa C. e and Rocha, Rudi}, title = {{A Queda do Desmatamento na Amazônia Brasileira: Preços ou Políticas?}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2012}, month = jan, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Deforestacion-Precios-o-Politicas-Sinopsis-Spanish.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }