Paris Misaligned: US Transport Sector

The analysis finds that 2018 U.S. light vehicle investments are critically misaligned with Paris Agreement goals, particularly in the private sector. While government spending shows better alignment, overall progress is hindered by the 'lock-in' effect of the existing fleet and the dominance of internal combustion engine vehicles. The report emphasizes that achieving climate targets requires higher fuel efficiency standards, mass EV adoption, and a transition to a low-carbon power sector.

• Investments in new U.S. light vehicles in 2018 are largely misaligned with Paris Agreement temperature trajectories. Total investment of 581,450 million USD resulted in carbon intensities (439–441 gCO2/mi for 2030) that align with a warming scenario of >2.7°C, which is more than double the targets for 2025 (186 gCO2/mi) and 2030 (192 gCO2/mi).
• There is a stark divide between private and public spending alignment. Household and business expenditures, comprising 99% of total investment, are on a pathway to >2.7°C of warming due to a 98% market share of Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles. Conversely, government expenditure is aligned with less severe pathways, potentially meeting a 1.8°C scenario by 2030 if the U.S. power sector also meets Paris goals.
• The 'lock-in' effect of the existing vehicle fleet significantly constrains the carbon budget for new vehicles. It is estimated that 75% of the 2025 Paris-aligned carbon budget for a <1.8°C scenario will be consumed by vehicles already on the road in 2017.
• Electric vehicles (EVs) are currently insufficient to shift fleet carbon intensity, representing only 2% of light road sales in 2018. Their climate impact is heavily dependent on the electricity grid; if the power sector follows a "Paris-aligned" scenario, the carbon intensity of 2018 EVs could decrease by 39% by 2030, compared to only 10% under a business-as-usual scenario.
• Several factors are impeding fuel efficiency improvements in the U.S., including the increasing market share of SUVs, which accounted for 50% of North American light vehicle sales in 2019, and the 2020 government decision to lower fuel efficiency requirements for the 2021-2026 period.

APA

Dreyer, C. (2020). Paris Misaligned: US Transport Sector. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/paris-misaligned-us-transport-sector/

Chicago

Dreyer, Caroline. Paris Misaligned: US Transport Sector. Climate Policy Initiative, 2020. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/paris-misaligned-us-transport-sector/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Dreyer |first1=Caroline |title=Paris Misaligned: US Transport Sector |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=11 December 2020 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/paris-misaligned-us-transport-sector/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dreyer2020paris, author = {Dreyer, Caroline}, title = {{Paris Misaligned: US Transport Sector}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2020}, month = dec, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/paris-misaligned-us-transport-sector/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }