Paris Misaligned: US Transport Sector

This research paper analyzes the alignment of 2018 U.S. light vehicle investments with the carbon intensity requirements of the Paris Agreement. It finds that the vast majority of financial flows, driven by private sector purchases of internal combustion engine vehicles, are critically misaligned with temperature trajectories, while government spending shows better alignment. The paper emphasizes the impact of 'locked-in' emissions from existing fleets and the necessity of scaling electric vehicles and modal shifts to meet climate goals.

• U.S. light vehicle investments in 2018 are critically misaligned with Paris Agreement goals for 2025 and 2030. The carbon intensity of new vehicles is more than double the targets for those years (186 gCO2/mi and 192 gCO2/mi). Total investment of 581,450 USDm is on a trajectory leading to more than 2.7°C of warming.
• There is a stark divide between private and government spending alignment. Household and business expenditures, which account for 99% of total investment (578,369 USDm), are on a pathway to >2.7°C of warming due to a 98% market share of Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles. Conversely, government expenditure (3,081 USDm) is aligned with less severe pathways and could potentially align with a 1.8°C scenario by 2030.
• Existing vehicle fleets create 'locked-in' greenhouse gas emissions that severely constrain the carbon budget for new vehicles. It is estimated that 75% of the 2025 Paris-aligned carbon budget for a <1.8°C scenario will be consumed by vehicles already on the road in 2017.
• Electric vehicles (EVs) represented only 2% of light road sales in 2018. While EVs are less subject to 'lock-in' because their carbon intensity can improve as the power sector decarbonizes, their current impact is limited. If the U.S. power sector follows a 'Paris-aligned' scenario, the carbon intensity of 2018 EVs could decrease by 39% by 2030, compared to only 10% under a business-as-usual scenario.
• Several factors hinder the transition to lower emissions, including the increasing market share of SUVs—which made up 50% of North American light vehicle sales in 2019—and a slowdown in fuel efficiency improvements. Additionally, the U.S. government reduced fuel efficiency requirements for new light vehicles for the 2021-2026 period in 2020.

APA

Dreyer, C. (2020). Paris Misaligned: US Transport Sector. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/paris-misaligned-us-transport-sector/

Chicago

Dreyer, Caroline. Paris Misaligned: US Transport Sector. Climate Policy Initiative, 2020. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/paris-misaligned-us-transport-sector/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Dreyer |first1=Caroline |title=Paris Misaligned: US Transport Sector |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=11 December 2020 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/paris-misaligned-us-transport-sector/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dreyer2020paris, author = {Dreyer, Caroline}, title = {{Paris Misaligned: US Transport Sector}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2020}, month = dec, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/paris-misaligned-us-transport-sector/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }