The Forest-Climate Nexus for the Brazilian Amazon

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative and PUC-RIO analyzes the potential for carbon sequestration and economic growth in the Brazilian Amazon through forest restoration. It proposes the Reversing Deforestation Mechanism (RDM) as a jurisdictional, results-based payment system to complement existing conservation funds, estimating that natural regeneration could capture up to 26 GtCO2 and mobilize significant international finance.

• Natural regeneration of already deforested areas in the Brazilian Amazon has the potential to capture up to 26 GtCO2.
• The Reversing Deforestation Mechanism (RDM), a jurisdictional payment system for net carbon removals, could mobilize up to US$ 784 billion in the Brazilian Amazon over 30 years, assuming a carbon price of US$ 50 per ton of CO2.
• There is a spatial mismatch in the Amazon between areas with high carbon capture potential and those with high agricultural productivity, which provides an opportunity to optimize land use by increasing production in cleared areas while restoring forests in others.
• The report identifies distinct roles for Amazonian states: Pará has the highest cumulative deforestation and the greatest carbon capture potential, while Amazonas possesses the largest remaining forest area as of 2024.
• The RDM is designed to complement two other financial mechanisms: JREDD+, which incentivizes the reduction of deforestation, and the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), which provides payments for maintaining standing forests.
• Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has significantly impacted regional climate, reducing dry season rainfall by approximately 21 mm over the last 35 years, with deforestation accounting for about 74% of that decline.
• The RDM can support Brazil's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target of reducing net emissions by 59% to 67% compared to 2005, especially since 2023 deforestation alone accounted for 1.06 billion tons of CO2.

APA

Climate Policy Initiative (2025). The Forest-Climate Nexus for the Brazilian Amazon. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/the-forest-climate-nexus-for-the-brazilian-amazon/

Chicago

Climate Policy Initiative. The Forest-Climate Nexus for the Brazilian Amazon. 2025. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/the-forest-climate-nexus-for-the-brazilian-amazon/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Policy Initiative |title=The Forest-Climate Nexus for the Brazilian Amazon |date=17 October 2025 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/the-forest-climate-nexus-for-the-brazilian-amazon/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatepolicyinitiative2025forestclimate, author = {{Climate Policy Initiative}}, title = {{The Forest-Climate Nexus for the Brazilian Amazon}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2025}, month = oct, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/the-forest-climate-nexus-for-the-brazilian-amazon/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }