The Forest-Climate Nexus for the Brazilian Amazon

The report highlights that natural regeneration in the Brazilian Amazon could capture up to 26 GtCO2, presenting a significant economic opportunity. It proposes the Reversing Deforestation Mechanism (RDM), a jurisdictional results-based payment system that could mobilize up to US$ 784 billion over 30 years at a carbon price of US$ 50 per ton. The RDM is designed to complement other financial tools: JREDD+ for reducing deforestation and the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) for maintaining standing forests. The analysis emphasizes that states like Pará and Mato Grosso have the highest restoration potential due to cumulative deforestation, while Amazonas is the primary beneficiary of standing forest payments.

• Natural regeneration of already deforested areas in the Brazilian Amazon has the potential to capture up to 26 GtCO2.
• The Reversing Deforestation Mechanism (RDM), a jurisdictional payment system for net carbon removals, could mobilize US$ 784 billion in the Brazilian Amazon over a 30-year period, assuming a carbon price of US$ 50 per ton of CO2.
• There is a strategic spatial mismatch in the Amazon where areas with high carbon capture potential typically have lower agricultural productivity, and vice versa, allowing for the optimization of land use to increase production in cleared areas while restoring others.
• Different Brazilian states present distinct opportunities: Pará has the highest cumulative deforestation and the greatest carbon capture potential, while Amazonas possesses the largest remaining forest area as of 2024.
• The RDM is designed to complement JREDD+ and the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) by filling a gap in forest restoration finance; JREDD+ incentivizes deforestation reduction and TFFF compensates for standing forests.
• The RDM can assist Brazil in meeting its new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target of a 59% to 67% reduction in net emissions compared to 2005, especially since 2023 deforestation alone accounted for 1.06 billion tons of CO2.
• The RDM is linked to the Restoration Arc strategy, which aims to recover 24 million hectares of forest by 2050 to capture carbon and create jobs.

APA

Climate Policy Initiative (2025). The Forest-Climate Nexus for the Brazilian Amazon. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/the-forest-climate-nexus-for-the-brazilian-amazon/

Chicago

Climate Policy Initiative. The Forest-Climate Nexus for the Brazilian Amazon. 2025. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/the-forest-climate-nexus-for-the-brazilian-amazon/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Policy Initiative |title=The Forest-Climate Nexus for the Brazilian Amazon |date=17 October 2025 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/the-forest-climate-nexus-for-the-brazilian-amazon/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatepolicyinitiative2025forestclimate, author = {{Climate Policy Initiative}}, title = {{The Forest-Climate Nexus for the Brazilian Amazon}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2025}, month = oct, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/the-forest-climate-nexus-for-the-brazilian-amazon/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }