The relationship between forest fires and deforestation in the Amazon: phenomena are more closely related in rural settlements and in occupied public lands

This research paper by the Climate Policy Initiative and PUC-Rio analyzes the relationship between forest fires and subsequent deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon from 2013 to 2020. The study finds that while forest fires are not systematically used as a direct first step to clear vegetation in the same location, they serve as a strong leading indicator of imminent deforestation in the surrounding vicinity, particularly in rural settlements and occupied public lands.

• Between 2013 and 2020, approximately 42% of active fires in the Brazilian Amazon occurred in areas that had never been deforested, potentially affecting over 18,000 square kilometers of forest cover annually.
• Forest fires in the Amazon are not typically used as a systematic first step for removing vegetation in the same area; on average, only 11% of the forest area affected by fire was deforested within three years.
• While local conversion is low, forest fires act as a leading indicator for deforestation in the immediate vicinity. For example, in 2017, the percentage of areas affected by fire with subsequent deforestation within 0.5 kilometers ranged from 20% to 50%.
• The association between forest fires and subsequent nearby deforestation is approximately 35% stronger in rural settlements and occupied public lands compared to the average of other land tenure categories, suggesting fires may facilitate low-cost land grabbing of public lands.
• Regional analysis shows that Pará and Mato Grosso have the highest concentrations of both phenomena; between 2013 and 2020, Pará accounted for 33% of forest fires and 39% of deforested area, while Mato Grosso accounted for 18% and 23%, respectively.
• The link between fires and subsequent nearby deforestation increased in several states, peaking in 2017, specifically in Acre, Amazonas, Pará, Rondônia, and Roraima.

APA

Climate Policy Initiative (2021). The relationship between forest fires and deforestation in the Amazon: phenomena are more closely related in rural settlements and in occupied public lands. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/the-relationship-between-forest-fires-and-deforestation-in-the-amazon-phenomena-are-more-closely-related-in-rural-settlements-and-in-occupied-public-lands/

Chicago

Climate Policy Initiative. The relationship between forest fires and deforestation in the Amazon: phenomena are more closely related in rural settlements and in occupied public lands. 2021. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/the-relationship-between-forest-fires-and-deforestation-in-the-amazon-phenomena-are-more-closely-related-in-rural-settlements-and-in-occupied-public-lands/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Policy Initiative |title=The relationship between forest fires and deforestation in the Amazon: phenomena are more closely related in rural settlements and in occupied public lands |date=2 December 2021 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/the-relationship-between-forest-fires-and-deforestation-in-the-amazon-phenomena-are-more-closely-related-in-rural-settlements-and-in-occupied-public-lands/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatepolicyinitiative2021relationship, author = {{Climate Policy Initiative}}, title = {{The relationship between forest fires and deforestation in the Amazon: phenomena are more closely related in rural settlements and in occupied public lands}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2021}, month = dec, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/the-relationship-between-forest-fires-and-deforestation-in-the-amazon-phenomena-are-more-closely-related-in-rural-settlements-and-in-occupied-public-lands/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }