EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF PERFORMANCE OF CDM PROJECTS: FINAL REPORT

The report finds that CDM projects frequently underperform, with only 76% of forecasted CERs actually issued by June 2007. This underperformance is attributed to overestimations by consultants and validators, as well as implementation and monitoring difficulties. Waste projects are the worst performers, while N2O projects often exceed expectations. The study identifies additionality demonstration as the primary cause of project rejection, particularly for large-scale projects and cement blending activities in India and Brazil. Bilateral projects, especially those with European participants, show higher CER issuance rates than unilateral projects. The report also highlights deficiencies in stakeholder consultation and the lack of quantifiable indicators for sustainable development in host countries like China, India, and Brazil.

• CDM projects exhibit significant underperformance in CER generation; of the 85.2 million CERs per year forecasted at the registration stage, only 64.8 million (76%) were actually issued.
• Project type is a major determinant of success: waste projects (landfill gas, animal waste, waste water) are the worst performers with only 31% of forecasted CERs issued, while N2O projects consistently generate more than expected.
• Additionality demonstration is the leading cause of project rejection, accounting for 65% of rejections, with a higher failure rate for large projects (75%) than small ones (50%).
• Bilateral projects generally outperform unilateral projects in CER issuance rates (77% vs 67%), with those involving European participants achieving the highest success rate at 121%.
• Project size correlates with issuance performance; projects generating fewer than 20,000 CERs per year outperform other sizes, likely due to lower complexity and higher conservativeness.
• In-house developed projects demonstrate better CER issuance performance than those developed by external consultancies, challenging the perceived value of external consultants.
• Stakeholder consultation processes in Brazil, China, and India are often insufficient; Brazil's mandatory written procedure results in fewer than 5% of projects receiving stakeholder comments.
• There is a lack of quantifiable indicators to measure the contribution of CDM projects to sustainable development in China, India, and Brazil, despite national definitions of sustainability.
• Cement blending projects in India and Brazil are highly prone to rejection due to insufficient demonstration of additionality.

APA

Castro, P., & Michaelowa, A. (2008). EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF PERFORMANCE OF CDM PROJECTS: FINAL REPORT. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/empirical-analysis-cdm-2007-2008.pdf

Chicago

Castro, Paula, and Axel Michaelowa. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF PERFORMANCE OF CDM PROJECTS: FINAL REPORT. Climate Strategies, 2008. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/empirical-analysis-cdm-2007-2008.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Castro |first1=Paula |last2=Michaelowa |first2=Axel |title=EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF PERFORMANCE OF CDM PROJECTS: FINAL REPORT |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=June 2008 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/empirical-analysis-cdm-2007-2008.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{castro2008empirical, author = {Castro, Paula and Michaelowa, Axel}, title = {{EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF PERFORMANCE OF CDM PROJECTS: FINAL REPORT}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2008}, month = jun, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/empirical-analysis-cdm-2007-2008.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }