Emission projections 2008-2012 versus NAPs II

The research finds that proposed Phase II NAPs likely result in an oversupply of allowances, potentially leading to very low carbon prices and a 'dead market'. This surplus is exacerbated by the potential inflow of CDM/JI credits, which would shift the cost of Kyoto compliance from the private sector to government treasuries.

• Proposed Phase II National Allocation Plans (NAPs) generally exceed the historic trend of emissions but remain below model-based 'business-as-usual' forecasts.
• There is a significant risk that the EU ETS will be unable to sustain a carbon price if current NAPs are approved, with a 15% chance of a 'dead market' (emissions below the cap even at zero price) when excluding CDM/JI credits.
• The inflow of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) credits further increases the likelihood of excess supply; with an expected inflow of 100 MtCO2/year, allowance supply would exceed demand in 50% of cases without any carbon price.
• If the currently proposed Phase II NAPs are approved, carbon prices are expected to be very low, which would result in CDM/JI credits being funded almost exclusively by the public sector, placing the cost of Kyoto compliance on government treasuries.
• To ensure CO2 prices remain close to 20 €/tCO2, the authors suggest the aggregated EU Cap would need to be significantly reduced, potentially by 200 Mt.
• The authors recommend increasing the use of auctions with a price floor to manage projection uncertainty and provide investment certainty for low-carbon technologies.

APA

Neuhoff, K., Ferrario, F., Grubb, M., Gabel, E., & Keats, K. (2006). Emission projections 2008-2012 versus NAPs II. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/1-emission-projections24112006.pdf

Chicago

Neuhoff, Karsten, Federico Ferrario, Michael Grubb, Etienne Gabel, and Kim Keats. Emission projections 2008-2012 versus NAPs II. Climate Strategies, 2006. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/1-emission-projections24112006.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Neuhoff |first1=Karsten |last2=Ferrario |first2=Federico |last3=Grubb |first3=Michael |last4=Gabel |first4=Etienne |last5=Keats |first5=Kim |title=Emission projections 2008-2012 versus NAPs II |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=2006 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/1-emission-projections24112006.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{neuhoff2006emission, author = {Neuhoff, Karsten and Ferrario, Federico and Grubb, Michael and Gabel, Etienne and Keats, Kim}, title = {{Emission projections 2008-2012 versus NAPs II}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2006}, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/1-emission-projections24112006.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }