PICTURING OUR FUTURE

Research indicates that under a 3°C warming scenario, approximately 800 million people—about 10% of the global population—would live on land below projected multi-century high tide lines. The risk is most concentrated in Asia, with China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia among the most endangered nations. Limiting warming to 1.5°C through the Paris Agreement could reduce the affected population to 510 million, potentially saving roughly 50 major cities from needing unprecedented defenses or abandonment.

• Under a 3°C warming scenario, the high tide line is projected to encroach upon land occupied by over 800 million people, representing roughly 10% of the current global population.
• Asia faces the highest overall exposure; eight of the ten most at-risk large nations (those with at least 600 million people exposed at 3°C) are Asian. China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia are among the top five most at-risk countries for long-term rise and were also the top five for new coal-burning capacity additions between 2015 and 2019.
• Limiting global warming to 1.5°C, in line with the Paris Agreement, would result in a median multi-century sea level rise of 2.9 meters, affecting 510 million people, compared to the 810 million affected at 3°C.
• Small island nations face extreme vulnerability; under 3°C of warming, more than 90% of the current populations of the Bahamas, Cayman Islands, Cocos Islands, Kiribati, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Tokelau, and Tuvalu would live on land below the projected high tide line.
• Current carbon emissions have already committed the planet to a sea level rise of approximately 1.9 meters over coming centuries, even if net global emissions ceased after 2020, which would affect 5% of the world's population.

APA

Climate Central (n.d.). PICTURING OUR FUTURE. https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/3qiqkWM5gqBsUP1D0oUtpH/fe444c3a49604617fa2ea17a8ba97b8c/PoF_-_Summary_Brief_2021.pdf

Chicago

Climate Central. PICTURING OUR FUTURE. n.d. https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/3qiqkWM5gqBsUP1D0oUtpH/fe444c3a49604617fa2ea17a8ba97b8c/PoF_-_Summary_Brief_2021.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Central |title=PICTURING OUR FUTURE |url=https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/3qiqkWM5gqBsUP1D0oUtpH/fe444c3a49604617fa2ea17a8ba97b8c/PoF_-_Summary_Brief_2021.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatecentralndpicturing, author = {{Climate Central}}, title = {{PICTURING OUR FUTURE}}, institution = {Climate Central}, url = {https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/3qiqkWM5gqBsUP1D0oUtpH/fe444c3a49604617fa2ea17a8ba97b8c/PoF_-_Summary_Brief_2021.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }