Climate Shift Index Alert

The document warns of a rare two-day 'Moderate Risk' of severe weather in the Midwest and Deep South on March 14-15, 2025, driven by temperatures 15-25°F above mid-March averages. It links this early-season warmth to human-caused climate change and notes a long-term increase in Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and the frequency of extreme tornado outbreaks in the U.S.

• A severe weather threat is forecast for March 14-15, 2025, across the Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and Deep South, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center issuing a rare two-day "Moderate Risk" (level 4 out of 5).
• Climate change has increased the probability of the extreme warmth driving this event: temperatures 20-25°F above average in the at-risk region for March 14 are at least twice as likely to occur, while temperatures 5-15°F above average for March 15 are 1.5 to 2 times more likely.
• Since 1979, the Central Ohio Valley, Kentucky, and Tennessee have seen an increase of 10 to 15 more days during springtime where Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values exceed 1,000 J/kg, indicating a higher potential for severe weather.
• While the annual number of U.S. tornadoes has remained stable since 1970, activity is increasingly concentrated in outbreaks, with the most extreme outbreaks increasing in frequency. Additionally, the proportion of U.S. tornado fatalities occurring at night has risen by 20% since 1880.

APA

Climate Central (2025). Climate Shift Index Alert. https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-shift-index-alert/midwest-and-deep-south-march-2025

Chicago

Climate Central. Climate Shift Index Alert. 2025. https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-shift-index-alert/midwest-and-deep-south-march-2025.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Central |title=Climate Shift Index Alert |date=13 March 2025 |url=https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-shift-index-alert/midwest-and-deep-south-march-2025 |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatecentral2025climate, author = {{Climate Central}}, title = {{Climate Shift Index Alert}}, institution = {Climate Central}, year = {2025}, month = mar, url = {https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-shift-index-alert/midwest-and-deep-south-march-2025}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }