Climate Risk Assessment Guide – Central Asia

The Climate Risk Assessment Guide – Central Asia establishes a framework to downscale climate impact understanding to support sub-national risk management. It integrates climate change assessment with disaster risk assessment, focusing on six types of capital: human, natural, social, financial, physical, and political. The methodology combines an impact-based assessment (using monetary damage and Delphi-based livelihood scoring) with a perception-based assessment to identify gaps between expert data and local views. The guide emphasizes the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for data management and provides a structured process for creating climate risk profiles to prioritize management actions.

• The guide identifies a critical need to 'downscale the understanding of climate impacts' to the sub-national and community levels because existing national reports often cover too broad a range of actions and timeframes to guide practical local action.
• Climate-related risks in Central Asia are categorized into direct hazards (e.g., heavy rainfall, extreme heat), consequent hazards (e.g., flooding, landslides, glacial lake outbursts), and contributory hazards (e.g., food and water shortages, climate-related disease).
• The assessment utilizes a modified Sustainable Livelihoods Framework to measure impacts across six capitals: human, natural, social, financial, physical, and political, with political capital added specifically to capture the role of governance in risk management.
• A significant limitation in the region is the lack of high-quality sub-national data; while physical climate parameters are well understood, data on socio-economic factors and specific event impacts have 'low to moderate level of confidence'.
• The methodology employs a 'six-pack approach' to data collection, prioritizing only data with clear links to risk to maintain efficiency and manage limited resources, rather than a 'garbage-can approach' of collecting all available data.
• The guide emphasizes that local perceptions of risk often differ from objective expert data, and failing to address this gap can lead to risk management efforts that lack local support or fail to address actual societal concerns.
• The risk assessment process uses a combination of monetary quantification for physical damage (calculated as per capita cost per year) and a Delphi-based scoring system for non-monetary livelihood impacts to determine overall risk levels.
• The guide provides a structured questionnaire for perception surveys that includes a 'willingness to pay' component to determine the relative importance of climate risks compared to other challenges faced by the population.

APA

Kelly, C., Biyalieva, C., Dolgikh, S., Erokhin, S., Fedorenko, A., Gareeva, A., Garcin, Y., Ibraimova, A., Iliasov, S., Mastre, I., Podrezov, A., Volovik, Y., Uzakbaeva, J., & Sidorin, A. (2013). Climate Risk Assessment Guide – Central Asia. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Climate-Risk-Assessment-Guide.pdf

Chicago

Kelly, C., Chinara Biyalieva, Svetlana Dolgikh, Sergey Erokhin, Alexander Fedorenko, Aida Gareeva, Yann Garcin, et al. Climate Risk Assessment Guide – Central Asia. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2013. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Climate-Risk-Assessment-Guide.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{kelly2013climate, author = {Kelly, C. and Biyalieva, Chinara and Dolgikh, Svetlana and Erokhin, Sergey and Fedorenko, Alexander and Gareeva, Aida and Garcin, Yann and Ibraimova, Aliya and Iliasov, Shamil and Mastre, Iren and Podrezov, Andrey and Volovik, Yegor and Uzakbaeva, Jyldyz and Sidorin, Andrey}, title = {{Climate Risk Assessment Guide – Central Asia}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2013}, month = jul, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Climate-Risk-Assessment-Guide.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }