Economic assessment of the impacts of climate change in Uganda: Key results

This executive summary presents an economic assessment of climate change impacts in Uganda, detailing the costs of inaction versus adaptation across water, agriculture, energy, and infrastructure sectors. It emphasizes that the cost of inaction is significantly higher than the cost of adaptation and provides specific sectoral priorities and regional case studies to guide the Government of Uganda's policy and investment decisions.

• The economic cost of inaction regarding climate change is estimated to be 20 times greater than the cost of adaptation. While adaptation costs are estimated at approximately US$406 million between 2015 and 2020, the cost of inaction is projected to be between US$3.1 billion and US$5.9 billion per year by 2025.
• Water demand in Uganda is projected to increase nearly ten-fold by 2050, rising from 408 million cubic metres per year to 3,963 million cubic metres per year. Under current investment plans, the resulting unmet demand is estimated to cause an economic loss of US$5.5 billion per year.
• Climate change is expected to severely impact agricultural exports, particularly coffee. Production of Arabica and Robusta coffee could decrease by 50% by 2050, with illustrative losses estimated at US$1,235 million. Total costs for agricultural exports are projected to range from US$134–196 million by 2025 to US$641–938 million by 2050.
• Uganda faces a significant deficit in biomass energy, which is the primary energy source. Climate change is expected to cause a further loss of 5% to 10% of domestic wood between 2020 and 2050, increasing the costs of inaction from US$123.6 billion to between US$130 billion and US$136 billion.
• Infrastructure resilience is a critical concern, with residential buildings accounting for the majority of costs related to lost resilience. Estimated costs for lost resilience could reach US$60–76 million in 2025 and US$347–621 million by 2050. Additionally, a doubling of extreme event frequency every 25 years could cause damages up to US$938–3,236 million by 2050.
• The prevalence of malaria is expected to increase due to population growth and climate change, significantly raising economic costs in specific districts. In Tororo, annual costs may rise from US$8.7–221 million currently to US$20.1–560.5 million by 2050; in Kabale, costs may increase from US$0.7–15.8 million to US$1.55–41.7 million by 2050.

APA

Twinomuhangi, R., & Monkhouse, C. (2015). Economic assessment of the impacts of climate change in Uganda: Key results. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/UGANDA_Economic-assessment-of-climate-change_WEB.pdf

Chicago

Twinomuhangi, Revocatus, and Claire Monkhouse. Economic assessment of the impacts of climate change in Uganda: Key results. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2015. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/UGANDA_Economic-assessment-of-climate-change_WEB.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Twinomuhangi |first1=Revocatus |last2=Monkhouse |first2=Claire |title=Economic assessment of the impacts of climate change in Uganda: Key results |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=November 2015 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/UGANDA_Economic-assessment-of-climate-change_WEB.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{twinomuhangi2015economic, author = {Twinomuhangi, Revocatus and Monkhouse, Claire}, title = {{Economic assessment of the impacts of climate change in Uganda: Key results}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2015}, month = nov, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/UGANDA_Economic-assessment-of-climate-change_WEB.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }