Economic assessment of the impacts of climate change in Uganda: Key results

The report argues that the cost of inaction regarding climate change in Uganda is significantly higher than the cost of adaptation, estimating annual losses between US$3.1 bn and 5.9 bn by 2025 compared to an adaptation cost of US$406 m over five years. It identifies critical vulnerabilities in water availability, agricultural exports (particularly coffee), biomass energy supply, and infrastructure resilience, while highlighting that many proposed adaptation measures are 'no regrets' investments that provide immediate development benefits.

• The economic cost of inaction is estimated to be 20 times greater than the cost of adaptation. While adaptation is estimated to cost around US$406 m between 2015 and 2020, the cost of inaction is projected to be between US$3.1 bn and 5.9 bn per year by 2025.
• Water demand in Uganda is projected to increase almost ten-fold by 2050, rising from 408 million cubic metres per year to 3,963 million cubic metres per year. Under current investment plans, the economic loss from unmet demand is calculated at US$5.5 bn per year.
• Climate change is expected to severely impact agricultural exports, with Arabica and Robusta coffee production potentially falling by 50% by 2050, resulting in estimated losses of approximately US$1,235 m.
• Uganda faces a significant future deficit in biomass energy, with climate change expected to cause a further loss of 5 to 10% of domestic wood between 2020 and 2050. This would increase the costs of inaction from US$123.6 bn to between US$130 bn and 136 bn.
• Infrastructure is highly vulnerable to both lost resilience and extreme weather events. Costs from lost resilience in residential, public, and non-residential buildings could reach US$347–621 m by 2050, while damages from a doubling in the frequency of extreme events could reach US$938–3,236 m by 2050.
• Climate change and population growth are projected to increase the economic costs of malaria in specific districts. In Tororo, annual costs may rise from US$8.7–221 m currently to US$20.1–560.5 m by 2050; in Kabale, costs may rise from US$0.7–15.8 m to US$1.55–41.7 m by 2050.

APA

Twinomuhangi, R., & Monkhouse, C. (2015). Economic assessment of the impacts of climate change in Uganda: Key results. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/UGANDA_Economic-assessment-of-climate-change_WEB.pdf

Chicago

Twinomuhangi, Revocatus, and Claire Monkhouse. Economic assessment of the impacts of climate change in Uganda: Key results. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2015. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/UGANDA_Economic-assessment-of-climate-change_WEB.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Twinomuhangi |first1=Revocatus |last2=Monkhouse |first2=Claire |title=Economic assessment of the impacts of climate change in Uganda: Key results |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=November 2015 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/UGANDA_Economic-assessment-of-climate-change_WEB.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{twinomuhangi2015economic, author = {Twinomuhangi, Revocatus and Monkhouse, Claire}, title = {{Economic assessment of the impacts of climate change in Uganda: Key results}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2015}, month = nov, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/UGANDA_Economic-assessment-of-climate-change_WEB.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }