Analysing vulnerability: a multi-dimensional approach from Colombia’s Upper Cauca River Basin

This policy brief describes the Agriculture, Vulnerability and Adaptation (AVA) project in Colombia's Upper Cauca River Basin. The project develops a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment model—incorporating biophysical, political-institutional, economic-productive, and sociocultural factors—to better inform climate adaptation policies for the agricultural sector, moving beyond traditional one-dimensional biophysical models.

• Agriculture is a critical component of Colombia's economy, contributing between 10% and 14% of the National Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and providing livelihoods for over 3.7 million people. However, climate change threatens 25 of the country's most important crops, and up to 83% of potential agricultural lands could lose their climatic suitability.
• The Andean Region faces severe economic risks due to climate change, with potential annual damages reaching US$30 billion by 2025, primarily stemming from the agricultural sector.
• The Agriculture, Vulnerability and Adaptation (AVA) project, launched in 2011, utilizes a four-dimensional model to analyze vulnerability. This approach integrates biophysical, political-institutional, economic-productive, and sociocultural factors to reduce the uncertainty associated with one-dimensional models and increase relevance regardless of climate model accuracy.
• The Upper Cauca River Basin is a strategic pilot area for the AVA project, covering 25,000 km2 across five departments: Caldas, Cauca, Quindío, Risaralda, and Valle del Cauca. This region is home to nearly 20% of Colombia's population and includes almost every production chain prioritized by the Ministry of Agriculture.
• The AVA project employs a participatory approach, engaging stakeholders—including farmers, industry representatives, and government authorities—to identify priority sub-sectors and indicators. This collaboration is essential for gathering qualitative data, such as shifts in crop calendars, which are not available in standard databases.
• The project identifies significant challenges in data collection and indicator definition. While biophysical data on temperature and precipitation are ample, data on wind, solar radiation, and humidity are insufficient. Additionally, political-institutional indicators are difficult to define because they often overlap with other dimensions and primarily reflect adaptive capacity.

APA

Peterson, C., Nowak, A., Jarvis, A., Navarrete, C., Figueroa, A., Riano, N., & Vargas, J. (2012). Analysing vulnerability: a multi-dimensional approach from Colombia’s Upper Cauca River Basin. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Colombia-InsideStory.pdf

Chicago

Peterson, Caitlin, Andreea Nowak, Andy Jarvis, Carolina Navarrete, Apolinar Figueroa, Nestor Riano, and Julio Vargas. Analysing vulnerability: a multi-dimensional approach from Colombia’s Upper Cauca River Basin. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2012. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Colombia-InsideStory.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{peterson2012analysing, author = {Peterson, Caitlin and Nowak, Andreea and Jarvis, Andy and Navarrete, Carolina and Figueroa, Apolinar and Riano, Nestor and Vargas, Julio}, title = {{Analysing vulnerability: a multi-dimensional approach from Colombia’s Upper Cauca River Basin}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2012}, month = nov, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Colombia-InsideStory.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }