An example of local assessment of future drought. Las Tunas province, Cuba

A case study in Las Tunas province, Cuba, using the CARiDRO tool and RCM simulations, projects that drought events between 2011 and 2050 will be more frequent, intense, and prolonged than those seen in 2003-2005. The study finds that the frequency of moderate to extreme droughts lasting four or more months will increase to 12-18 occurrences, driven by reduced precipitation and increased evaporation due to rising temperatures. The findings underscore the importance of water management strategies, including water saving and evaporation controls, to adapt to these projected climate extremes.

• A severe drought event between 2003 and 2005 in Las Tunas province, Cuba, caused critical water supply issues and significant economic losses in the agricultural sector, leading to the implementation of short and long-term measures such as water saving, storage, and hydraulic improvement systems.
• Projections for the period 2011-2050 indicate that drought events in Las Tunas province will become more frequent, intense, and prolonged than those observed during 2003-2005. This is driven by a combination of reduced precipitation and increased water loss due to rising temperatures, as evidenced by the SPEI (water balance based drought index) showing more intense droughts in the second half of the projection period.
• Analysis using seven Regional Climate Model (RCM) experiments and the CARiDRO tool shows that the future frequency (2011-2050) of moderate or extreme drought processes lasting four or more consecutive months will range from 12 to 18 times. These projected frequencies are higher than those observed between 1971 and 2000.
• The study emphasizes the necessity of water management programs to mitigate future drought impacts, specifically those focusing on water saving, the regulation of water use, and controls to minimize freshwater loss from contamination or evaporation.

APA

Centella, A., Vichot, A., & Bezanilla, A. (n.d.). An example of local assessment of future drought. Las Tunas province, Cuba. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-Final-report-Las-Tunas-community-in-Cuba.pdf

Chicago

Centella, Abel, Alejandro Vichot, and Arnoldo Bezanilla. An example of local assessment of future drought. Las Tunas province, Cuba. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, n.d. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-Final-report-Las-Tunas-community-in-Cuba.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Centella |first1=Abel |last2=Vichot |first2=Alejandro |last3=Bezanilla |first3=Arnoldo |title=An example of local assessment of future drought. Las Tunas province, Cuba |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-Final-report-Las-Tunas-community-in-Cuba.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{centellandexample, author = {Centella, Abel and Vichot, Alejandro and Bezanilla, Arnoldo}, title = {{An example of local assessment of future drought. Las Tunas province, Cuba}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-Final-report-Las-Tunas-community-in-Cuba.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }