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In a 2010 statement, Lesetja Kganyago, Director General of the National Treasury, discusses the role of the rand's exchange rate in South Africa's economy. He argues that while a depreciated currency can support exports, it is not a 'silver bullet' and must be accompanied by low inflation and productivity growth to be effective. Kganyago defends the managed float regime as a necessary shock absorber and warns against a fixed exchange rate, which would sacrifice monetary sovereignty. He emphasizes that long-term competitiveness requires microeconomic reforms, including infrastructure development and education, to address structural rigidities.

The proceedings of the Critical Thinking Forum examine the debate over whether South Africa should manage its exchange rate to boost industrial competitiveness or maintain a flexible system. Key discussions highlight that nominal currency devaluation may be unsustainable due to limited foreign exchange reserves and could exacerbate inflation. Experts argue that long-term competitiveness depends more on microeconomic reforms, reducing domestic costs, and increasing national savings than on currency manipulation. The forum also addresses the tension between trade liberalization and protectionist industrial policies, such as the National Industrial Policy Framework (NIPF), with some participants warning that raising tariffs could harm the poor and discourage export diversification.

The National Chairman of the South African Institute of International Affairs reviews the 2009-2010 period, highlighting South Africa's influence in the G20 and the BASIC group during the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit. It discusses the need for reform in Bretton Woods institutions and the challenges of democratic stability in Africa, specifically in Zimbabwe, Nigeria, and Sudan. The statement also outlines President Zuma's prioritisation of bilateral relations with Angola, Brazil, and the UK, and the establishment of the South African Development Partnership Agency (SADPA).

The author contends that South Africa is experiencing a retrenchment of its global diplomatic ambition under President Zuma, characterized by a lack of policy clarity and a 'managerial lacuna' within the government. While acknowledging the institutional legacy of the African Union left by former President Mbeki, the text warns that continental crises—including climate change, energy insecurity, and water stress—require decisive leadership that is currently absent. The author calls for greater policy coherence between the Department of International Relations and Co-Operation (DIRCO) and other state organs and the private sector, suggesting that DIRCO must modernize its diplomatic skills to include environmental and economic literacy to drive domestic growth.

The document compares the aid approaches of China and the EU in Africa, contrasting China's focus on economic infrastructure and non-interference with the EU's emphasis on social infrastructure, good governance, and conditionality. It argues that while these models are often perceived as competing, they can be complementary if both parties shift toward a pragmatic, recipient-centered perspective. The author suggests starting co-operation through second-track research and official exchange programmes to bridge the perception gap.

The document examines the growth of a Chinese retail community in Dakar, Senegal, since the late 1990s. It details how Chinese migrants, many former employees of Henan Construction, occupied the residential area of Le Centenaire by renting front yards from financially struggling Senegalese civil servants. This created a commercial hub that provided affordable goods to the local population but sparked conflict with established Senegalese retailers, leading to a major strike in 2004. The paper highlights the disconnect between these independent retailers and the Chinese embassy, the emergence of a parallel informal market of Senegalese 'table retailers', and the eventual creation of an independent Chinese chamber of commerce to manage community interests.

This report examines the mining sector in Tanzania, focusing on the economic contributions of the industry, the challenges of securing a 'social licence to operate' from local communities, and a case study of the Barrick Gold Corporation's operations within the country.

The author argues that while South Africa possesses the political will and capability to react to security threats during the 2010 FIFA World Cup, it suffers from a lack of proactivity in counter-terrorism intelligence. This vulnerability is attributed to the politicisation of intelligence services and a sense of complacency following previous successful sporting events. The document identifies two primary security dimensions: high levels of violent criminality, exacerbated by porous borders and unemployment, and the risk of terrorism, noting that sports events are 'magnets' for such attacks. The author calls for an urgent overhaul of intelligence services, the replacement of political appointees with professionals, and improved national and international cooperation to prevent potential outrages.

The African Union (AU) faces a dilemma in Niger, where a military 'counter-coup' has overthrown President Tandja, who had previously used unconstitutional means to bypass term limits. While the AU has broadened its definition of 'unconstitutional change of government' to include incumbent leaders manipulating constitutions, it must now decide how to respond to a textbook military coup. The author argues that the AU must condemn the coup to avoid political instability, despite the potential for the military to restore constitutional rule. The situation is complicated by Niger's mineral wealth—specifically uranium, gold, and oil—and the strategic interests of foreign powers like France, which relies on Niger for uranium imports for its nuclear energy sector.

The United States has increasingly recognized Brazil as a significant regional and global power due to its economic growth, leadership in biofuels, and role in multilateral forums like the G20. While there is mutual interest in cooperating on climate change, energy, and global financial stability, the document argues that a 'special relationship' is hindered by divergent priorities in security, trade disputes over agricultural subsidies and industrial protection, and a lack of dedicated Brazil expertise within the US policy community.

The document analyzes the shift in African investment patterns as BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) increase their presence on the continent. While this trend boosts overall African economic growth and infrastructure, it creates new challenges for South African companies, including increased competition in resources and construction, and the risk of being undercut by state-subsidized Chinese firms. However, the author identifies opportunities for South Africa to leverage its local expertise through strategic partnerships with these new investors.

The African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) has evolved from a concept into a multifaceted system with 29 member states, providing candid governance diagnoses and opening political space for reform. However, the institution currently faces significant crises of confidence regarding the transparency of its leadership selection, a lack of a CEO since June 2007, and the marginalization of civil society.

The document analyzes the relationship between agricultural trade policies and food security, specifically focusing on the vulnerabilities of net food-importing developing countries (NFIDCs) during the Doha Round of WTO negotiations. It argues that while some Doha Round flexibilities primarily benefit food-producing nations, the reduction of trade-distorting domestic support in developed countries could provide long-term food security by stabilizing prices and reducing biofuel-driven crop diversion.

The document analyzes the strategic interdependence between China and Angola, where Chinese credit lines for infrastructure are guaranteed by oil supplies, and Chinese national oil companies seek equity in Angolan oil blocs. It details the 'Angola model' of resource-collateralized loans and the specific successes and failures of Sinopec's upstream and downstream ventures.

The report evaluates Tanzania's marine fisheries governance, highlighting a disconnect between progressive national policies and actual implementation. It identifies critical gaps in research capacity, institutional coordination between mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar, and the challenges of managing an open-access artisanal sector. A detailed case study of the Mafia Island Marine Park (MIMP) explores the tensions between conservation goals and the livelihoods of local communities, while questioning the degree of genuine community participation in the park's establishment.

The report examines the hydrological constraints and governance regimes of transboundary river basins in the SADC region, arguing that while water is not a primary driver of conflict, robust institutional frameworks and policy harmonisation are essential for economic growth. It highlights the role of the SADC Water Protocol and the evolution of basin-specific regimes, proposing 'Parallel National Action' as a mechanism to align national policies without eroding state sovereignty.

The report examines the Tanzanian mining sector, noting that while it contributes modestly to GDP (2.3%), it accounts for approximately 45% of foreign earnings. It highlights a significant gap between public perceptions of mining profitability and the operational realities of the industry. A case study of Barrick Gold reveals varying levels of social legitimacy across its mines, with the North Mara mine facing severe challenges including criminal activity and community mistrust, while the Buzwagi mine was designed to follow global best practices. The report recommends greater fiscal transparency through EITI compliance and the creation of a national mining forum.

The paper examines the potential for a 'resource curse' in Ghana, noting that while strong civil society and a history of fair elections provide a democratic foundation, risks such as 'Dutch Disease', budget volatility, and a lack of transparency in oil contracts persist. It argues that the impact of oil on Ghana's democracy is ambiguous and depends on the government's ability to manage revenues through stabilisation funds and industrial policies that support economic diversification, particularly in agriculture.

The paper critiques South Africa's first APRM Implementation Report for failing to distinguish between general post-apartheid achievements and specific progress made under the APRM National Programme of Action. It identifies significant gaps in reporting on corruption, xenophobia, and corporate governance, while noting that the report was likely rushed and lacks self-criticism. The author suggests that the South African government viewed the APRM as an external diplomatic requirement rather than a domestic tool for governance improvement.

The author proposes that Africa establish an informal 'club of states' similar to the G8 or G20 to address continental challenges and represent Africa globally. The brief argues that formal institutions like the African Union (AU) are hindered by a commitment to equality among states and resistance to reform, which leads to weak compromises. To achieve effectiveness, the author suggests an 'A5 Club' consisting of South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Ethiopia, and Kenya, with Egypt as a possible sixth member. This group would be based on 'effectiveness and capabilities' rather than democratic legitimacy, aiming to stabilise failing states, end conflicts, and steer AU political processes.