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The research analyzes UNSC resolutions in self-determination disputes to determine what drives the UN's decision to take preventive action. The authors find that the UN is significantly more likely to intervene in nonviolent disputes that have a history of violence or are located in regions with a high potential for contagion. While the UN employs a variety of tools—most notably diplomacy and condemnation—political constraints, particularly the interests of the P-5 members, limit its ability to act based on specific dispute-level characteristics like factionalism or economic status.

The study traces a longitudinal history of violence in South Sudan, arguing that since the colonial period, local populations have been viewed as resources to be managed, exploited, and controlled rather than non-combatants. This logic of violent governance—characterized by forced displacement, collective punishment, and the blurring of lines between military and civilian actors—has persisted through multiple civil wars and continues to influence current conflict dynamics and the effectiveness of international protection efforts.

The research argues that the expansion of jihadist groups in central Mali is fueled by a 'predatory and corrupt state' and a development model that ignores pastoral priorities. By analyzing land-use conflicts in the Mopti region, the authors find that pastoralists support jihadist groups because they offer an anti-elite discourse and a perceived alternative to a state that extracts rent through corrupt courts and a paramilitary Forest Service. The study concludes that recruitment is largely a strategic response to material interests and political exclusion.