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This report by FSD Africa and McKinsey Sustainability presents a nature stress test for the banking systems of Ghana, Mauritius, Morocco, Rwanda, and Zambia. It evaluates how nature-related physical and transition risks impact real economy profits and subsequent credit losses for financial institutions across three scenarios: current policies, a disorderly transition, and an orderly transition aligned with the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). The findings highlight that while portfolio-level risks may appear moderate, they are heavily concentrated in priority sectors like agriculture and mining, where unweighted losses can be severe. The report argues that a coordinated, orderly transition can significantly mitigate these financial risks and provide macroeconomic benefits.

This research paper, conducted by the World Resources Institute (WRI) and Standard & Poor's Rating Services, analyzes how two potential U.S. federal climate policy scenarios—a market-based cap-and-trade system (the American Power Act) and EPA regulation—would affect the credit risk of 13 energy-intensive chemicals subsectors.