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The document warns that 11 gigatonnes of 'hot air' credits—resulting from overestimated emissions and low-quality projects under the Kyoto Protocol—threaten the ambition of the Paris agreement. It proposes that these credits should not be carried over into the compliance period starting in 2020 and that strict eligibility rules should limit the use of market mechanisms to parties with ambitious reduction goals.

The ADP 2-11 session in Bonn was characterized by a loss of consensus and a reversal of previous progress due to dissatisfaction with the Co-Chairs' proposed negotiating text. Instead of advancing toward a final agreement for COP 21, parties spent the session re-compiling a more comprehensive but fragmented text, reverting to positions held earlier in 2015. The meeting was further hampered by procedural disputes over the use of closed spin-off groups and a lack of progress on the accompanying decision text, leaving the Paris negotiations with a complex and unrefined basis for agreement.

Carbon Market Watch argues that the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) requires fundamental reform to remain viable after 2020, specifically to move beyond 'pure offsetting' and ensure human rights protections. The organization recommends establishing a formal grievance mechanism, strengthening civil society participation, and introducing stricter additionality testing to exclude high-emission technologies like coal. It also calls for the removal of conflicts of interest within the CDM Executive Board and the introduction of liability rules for Designated Operational Entities (DOEs) to prevent the issuance of non-additional credits.

The policy brief warns that the EU's 2030 commitment to reduce emissions by at least 40% below 1990 levels could be undermined by a projected surplus of up to 4.5 GtCO2e in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and 1.5–1.7 GtCO2e in the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD). If these 'hot air' allowances are carried over, the effective emission reductions for 2030 could drop to 32%. The author recommends the permanent cancellation of at least 2 billion EU allowances by the end of 2020 and the prohibition of pre-2020 reductions in the 2030 ESD, while calling for robust international accounting and eligibility criteria under the Paris agreement to prevent similar issues globally.

The study finds that approximately 75% of Joint Implementation (JI) offsets likely did not represent additional emission reductions, potentially increasing global GHG emissions by 600 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. The analysis highlights systemic failures in additionality testing, the prevalence of retroactive crediting, and the lack of international oversight in Track 1 projects, particularly in countries with significant Assigned Amount Unit (AAU) surpluses like Russia and Ukraine.

The report presents seven 'deception dossiers' containing approximately 85 internal documents that reveal how fossil fuel companies and trade associations intentionally spread climate misinformation. It details tactics such as the secret funding of contrarian scientists, the creation of 'astroturf' grassroots groups, and the use of forged letters to Congress to undermine climate science and delay the transition to clean energy.

The authors advocate for five-year cycles of climate commitments over ten-year cycles to better align with scientific data and the rapid pace of technological innovation. They argue that current intended national climate commitments are insufficient, potentially leading to warming of 3 to 3.5°C, and that shorter cycles provide the predictability necessary for business investment in a low-carbon economy.

Carbon Market Watch argues that carbon markets should not substitute for domestic emission reductions and warns that oversupply in previous systems, such as the EU ETS and Kyoto Protocol's International Emissions Trading, has undermined their effectiveness. The organization emphasizes that the remaining carbon budget to stay below 2ºC is limited, necessitating a focus on zero/low carbon infrastructure over offsetting. It recommends that any new framework for international unit transfers must include robust eligibility rules, environmental integrity standards, and accounting rules to prevent double claiming.

A letter from MEPs to the CDM Board regarding the Santa Rita hydroelectric plant project in Guatemala, citing severe human rights abuses and a lack of local stakeholder consultation.

The document analyzes the tension between the principle of equal treatment in international aviation and the need for differential treatment for developing nations regarding emissions regulation. It notes that the Kyoto Protocol delegated mitigation measures to the ICAO, which has seen limited success. The authors suggest that reconciling these opposing approaches requires applying differential treatment during the implementation phase through financial, technological, and capacity-building support.

The document details a leaked 1998 memo from the American Petroleum Institute (API) outlining a 'Global Climate Science Communications Plan' designed to make scientific uncertainties in climate change part of 'conventional wisdom'. It contrasts this industry strategy with the 1995 IPCC findings that indicated a 'discernible human influence on global climate'. The text notes that API, representing companies like ExxonMobil and Shell, has continued to challenge the science of climate change, including a 2011 legal challenge against the EPA's endangerment finding.

The document exposes a 1998 leaked memo from the American Petroleum Institute (API) detailing a strategic plan to promote scientific uncertainty regarding climate change. It contrasts API's claims of uncertainty with findings from the IPCC's 1990 and 1995 reports, which established human influence on global warming. The text further notes API's ongoing efforts to block U.S. federal regulations, including a 2011 lawsuit challenging the EPA's endangerment finding.

A group of organisations calls on the European Union to ensure that its external actions on climate change fully respect and promote human rights. The letter highlights the importance of maintaining human rights language in the 2015 international climate treaty and suggests that the EU's Strategic Framework and Action Plan on Human Rights and Democracy should explicitly support these objectives.

The Lima COP 20 summit focused on defining the instructions for a legally binding global agreement to be finalized in Paris in December 2015. Key achievements included the agreement that Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) be presented by October 2015 and the shift away from the Kyoto Protocol's industrialisation-based differentiation, with major emitters like the USA and China showing willingness to reduce emissions. The summit also saw new contributions to the Green Climate Fund, which reached US$10.2m, and progress on the REDD+ mechanism and gender-responsive climate policies. However, issues regarding the International Mechanism for Loss and Damage, market mechanisms, and the Technology Mechanism remained unresolved.

The document analyzes the conflict between the principle of differential treatment (CBDRRC) used in climate law and the principle of equal treatment central to international aviation law. It argues that a 'contextual treatment' approach—which differentiates based on changing national circumstances and implementation assistance—is more viable for regulating aviation emissions than the rigid binary divisions of the Kyoto Protocol. The brief notes a shift toward this approach within the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the European Union (EU), suggesting that such flexibility is key to establishing a global market-based emissions reduction mechanism.

The evaluation finds that Joint Implementation (JI) likely increased global GHG emissions by approximately 600 million tCO2e because many projects lacked additionality and were hosted by countries with significant allowance surpluses. The report highlights systemic failures in auditing, particularly under Track 1, and notes that 80% of issued ERUs came from project types with low or questionable environmental integrity. It recommends international oversight, standardized methodologies, and the prohibition of retroactive crediting for future mechanisms.

Carbon Market Watch asserts that international carbon markets require high ambition and demand to function effectively. Drawing on the Kyoto Protocol experience where weak targets in Russia and Ukraine created 'hot air' credits that undermined emissions trading, the author advocates for eligibility criteria based on stringent targets and the principle of supplementarity, where market units only supplement domestic ambition.

The author contends that shorter UNFCCC commitment periods (five years) are superior to longer ones (ten years) because they prevent the 'locking in' of under-ambitious emissions targets. While the EU has advocated for a ten-year period to provide investment security and align with its 2030 Energy Package, the author argues this package lacks sufficient ambition and could freeze global climate aspirations. The text also notes that the US supports shorter periods due to domestic political volatility and the likelihood that a long-term legally binding agreement would be rejected by the US Congress.

The document argues that the CDM, as a pure offsetting mechanism, often fails to deliver real emission reductions and lacks sufficient social safeguards. It proposes a fundamental overhaul of the CDM's modalities and procedures, focusing on achieving net atmospheric benefits, strengthening additionality testing, shortening crediting periods, and enhancing civil society participation and grievance mechanisms. It also calls for greater transparency from Designated National Authorities (DNAs), stricter eligibility and conduct rules for the CDM Executive Board, and the introduction of liability rules for Designated Operational Entities (DOEs) to prevent conflicts of interest.

Carbon Market Watch argues that the draft review of Joint Implementation (JI) guidelines requires critical improvements to prevent the issuance of non-additional credits. The organization advocates for stronger oversight by the Joint Implementation Supervisory Committee (JISC), the mandatory reassessment of existing projects, the termination of crediting periods by 2020, and the cessation of retroactive crediting to protect the integrity of climate targets.