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A quick look at the extreme rainfall in Japan
In early July 2018, southwestern Japan experienced extreme rainfall, with some interior stations recording more than twice the usual amount for the wettest day of the year, leading to local return times exceeding 200 years. Observational data from 94 stations show a higher prevalence of positive trends in extreme rainfall probability than negative trends, suggesting a systematic influence beyond natural variability. While a single high-resolution model (EC-Earth T799) qualitatively reproduces these positive trends from 1850 to 2098, the authors state that a lack of sufficient climate models and manpower prevents a robust quantitative attribution statement. The analysis concludes that climate change likely increased the probability of such extreme rains, though the exact magnitude remains undetermined.
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Document type: Briefing