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US Climate Policy: A critical assessment of intensity standards
The paper evaluates whether intensity standards for energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) industries are an efficient alternative to uniform carbon taxes in the US. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, the authors find that while lax standards may slightly reduce leakage, stringent standards can actually increase carbon leakage and lead to substantial welfare losses compared to economy-wide emission pricing. The study concludes that intensity standards are primarily driven by political economy considerations rather than economic efficiency.
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Document type: Research paper
Is a Market Stability Reserve likely to improve the functioning of the EU ETS?
The report investigates the potential for a Market Stability Reserve (MSR) to address market and regulatory failures in the EU ETS, such as limited banking capacity and regulatory myopia. Through a model comparison exercise involving twelve institutions, the authors assess different MSR designs—including the European Commission's proposal, an 'Early Start' version, and price-based mechanisms—across indicators of efficiency, price credibility, consistency, transformation, and robustness. The findings suggest that an MSR generally improves performance, with an Early Start MSR (2017) offering superior benefits over the 2021 proposal. The report emphasizes that the effectiveness of quantity-based MSRs depends heavily on setting trigger levels that accommodate the hedging needs of market participants, suggesting the use of REMIT Directive data for future adjustments.
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Document type: Report
SACC: An international consortium for the study of ocean related global and climate changes in South America (SGP-CRA 2076)
The SACC project investigates the exchange processes between the deep ocean and the continental shelf of eastern South America, specifically testing the hypothesis that the Subtropical Shelf Front (STSF) is a primary site for shelf water transfer. Initial findings indicate that the Patagonia shelf absorbs approximately 17 Tg C per year and that freshwater inputs from the Rio de la Plata and Patos Lagoon significantly influence ecosystem production in the Southwest Atlantic.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Regional IAM: analysis of risk-adjusted costs and benefits of climate policies
The authors argue that conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) fails to account for the value of flexibility and the irreversibility of climatic events. By applying real option analysis to the DICER model, they incorporate the 'cost of lost flexibility' as a penalty function. Their results indicate that accounting for risk leads to a more aggressive mitigation pathway, reducing the optimal end-of-century temperature increase from approximately 2.5°C in deterministic scenarios to about 2.25°C.
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Document type: Research paper
Economic Efficiency, Environmental Effectiveness and Political Feasibility of Energy Efficiency Rebates: the Case of the Spanish Energy Efficiency “Renove” Plan
The paper evaluates the Spanish "Renove" plan, which provides rebates for A+ labelled energy-efficient appliances. Using a model of close substitutes, the authors find that a standalone 80€ subsidy for dishwashers in the Basque Autonomous Community increases total market demand by 1.5%, leading to a "rebound effect" that increases the total energy bill by 197,399€ and costs the government over 1 M€. In contrast, a 40€ tax on non-efficient appliances reduces total appliance demand by 1.6%, generates approximately 0.8 M€ in revenue, and saves nearly 300,000€ in energy costs. The authors argue that combining taxes and subsidies can optimize outcomes; for example, a 40€ subsidy paired with a 20€ tax avoids a deficit, prevents the rebound effect, and reduces deadweight loss compared to single-instrument policies.
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Document type: Research paper
Epstein-Zin utility in DICE: Is risk aversion irrelevant to climate policy?
The authors develop a hybrid "EZ-DICE" model that replaces the standard constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility with Epstein-Zin utility, allowing for the independent calibration of risk aversion and time preference. Using a five-state model of uncertainty regarding climate sensitivity, the study finds that EZ-DICE results in a significantly higher social cost of carbon and more rapid carbon emission abatement compared to the standard DICE model. However, the results are remarkably insensitive to the level of risk aversion, which the authors attribute to DICE's optimistic assumptions that allow for the certain and low-cost prevention of the worst climate outcomes through immediate 100-percent abatement.
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Document type: Research paper
The Private Provision of International Impure Public Goods: the Case of Climate Policy
The authors propose a global Pigouvian tax scheme combined with international side-payments to achieve Pareto-optimal climate policy. They argue that treating climate policy as an 'impure public good'—which provides both global climate stabilisation and local ancillary benefits (e.g., reduced air pollution)—increases the attractiveness of mitigation and provides immediate financial payback for investments. Numerical simulations show that while ancillary benefits only moderately increase the required tax rates, they expand the financial scope for international transfers. The study concludes that these immediate local benefits are critical for political support, especially for countries with high public debt, as primary climate benefits are delayed by approximately half a century.
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Document type: Research paper
Food from the Deep
The Patagonian shelf upwelling is a unique system driven by deep sea currents and bottom topography rather than wind, providing a year-round supply of nutrients that supports major fisheries and carbon sequestration in the South Atlantic.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Simulation of Pollen Transport by Wind
The authors present a Cellular Automaton (CA) model designed to simulate how wind transports and deposits pollen. The model uses a 2D lattice to track pollen through three states: releasable, air-borne, and deposited. It incorporates stochastic processes for pollen release, transport (including turbulence and gusts), and 'sticking' probabilities for deposition. The authors demonstrate that this CA approach provides a better fit for experimental pollen deposition data than traditional exponential decay models and can reproduce complex patterns like humps or irregular declines. The paper also validates the model by showing it can replicate the Gaussian diffusion patterns predicted by partial differential equations for a thin line of pollen moving in a uniform wind.
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Document type: Research paper
Simulation of Pollen Transport by Wind: II. Numerical Experiments and Comparisons with Observations
The research paper tests a Cellular Automaton (CA) model to simulate how wind velocity, turbulence, and source field size affect pollen dispersal. By using wind data from Dunkeswell, UK, and comparing results to historical field data from the US and other regions, the authors demonstrate that the model provides a good approximation of pollen deposition. A key finding is that pollen deposition is often 'patchy,' forming 'fingers' or 'islands' of high concentration, which suggests that fixed separation distances for GM crop co-existence are unreliable.
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Document type: Research paper