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Re-assessment of CO₂ and SO₂ emissions in energy sector by using LEAP-model: experiences from Estonian energy sector planning
This policy brief evaluates the use of the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model in Estonian energy planning. A 2012 re-assessment found that actual CO₂ and SO₂ emissions between 2000 and 2006 were slightly higher than 2009 model projections, primarily due to revised statistical methodologies and unexpected increases in electricity exports. The study highlights that while LEAP is effective for supply predictions, it is less accurate for demand forecasts due to the influence of unpredictable political and economic decisions. The authors argue for the necessity of periodic ex post re-assessments of modelling results to improve policy planning and reduce future uncertainties.
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Document type: Policy brief