Re-assessment of CO₂ and SO₂ emissions in energy sector by using LEAP-model: experiences from Estonian energy sector planning

This policy brief evaluates the use of the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model in Estonian energy planning. A 2012 re-assessment found that actual CO₂ and SO₂ emissions between 2000 and 2006 were slightly higher than 2009 model projections, primarily due to revised statistical methodologies and unexpected increases in electricity exports. The study highlights that while LEAP is effective for supply predictions, it is less accurate for demand forecasts due to the influence of unpredictable political and economic decisions. The authors argue for the necessity of periodic ex post re-assessments of modelling results to improve policy planning and reduce future uncertainties.

• Periodic re-assessment of modelling results in Impact Assessments is necessary for better policy planning because models like LEAP are susceptible to unpredictable long-term political and economic decisions.
• Actual emissions from 2000–2006 were higher than the 2009 LEAP projections, with CO₂ emissions 1.5% higher and SO₂ emissions 2.0% higher, largely because of revised statistical methodologies and increased electricity exports to the region.
• The LEAP model is more effective at predicting energy supply than demand, as production capacities are more stable than consumption patterns, which are more easily influenced by economic and political factors.
• The 2012 re-assessment indicates that emissions by 2030 will be higher than the 2009 projections due to a higher annual growth in electricity consumption (2.2% compared to 1.5%) and significantly larger annual electricity exports (4,354 GWh compared to 1,000 GWh).
• Actual heat consumption was up to 13% lower than assumed in the model, likely due to government-supported house insulation schemes.
• Several unforeseen factors contributed to the deviation between projections and reality, including the continued operation of old oil-shale units, the decision to install sulphur-capturing filters instead of closing plants in 2016, and the start of net electricity exports in 2009.

APA

Kuldna, P., Kuhi-Thalfeldt, R., & Peterson, K. (2013). Re-assessment of CO₂ and SO₂ emissions in energy sector by using LEAP-model: experiences from Estonian energy sector planning. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/4543.pdf

Chicago

Kuldna, Piret, Reeli Kuhi-Thalfeldt, and Kaja Peterson. Re-assessment of CO₂ and SO₂ emissions in energy sector by using LEAP-model: experiences from Estonian energy sector planning. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2013. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/4543.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kuldna |first1=Piret |last2=Kuhi-Thalfeldt |first2=Reeli |last3=Peterson |first3=Kaja |title=Re-assessment of CO₂ and SO₂ emissions in energy sector by using LEAP-model: experiences from Estonian energy sector planning |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=October 2013 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/4543.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kuldna2013reassessment, author = {Kuldna, Piret and Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli and Peterson, Kaja}, title = {{Re-assessment of CO₂ and SO₂ emissions in energy sector by using LEAP-model: experiences from Estonian energy sector planning}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2013}, month = oct, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/4543.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }