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ANGOLA - At the Precipice
The report warns that Angola is on the verge of a return to war due to the failure of the Lusaka Peace Accords and the refusal of UNITA to hand over territory. It highlights a precarious economic state for the Luanda government, characterized by a US $10 billion debt and falling oil prices, which may motivate a military push to secure diamond wealth. The analysis suggests that while the government (FAA) possesses air and armor superiority, the terrain of the Central Highlands and poor troop discipline could lead to a costly or stalled offensive. Three scenarios are presented: a successful government victory, a protracted stalemate, or a decisive UNITA victory leading to renegotiated peace terms.
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Document type: Research paper