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Climate change increases likelihood of compounding drivers of severe wildfire conditions in France and Spain
The report analyzes the July 2026 wildfires in France and Spain, finding that anthropogenic warming significantly increased the probability and intensity of the fire-conducive weather. In central Spain, similar conditions are now at least 20 times more likely than in a pre-industrial climate, while in southwest France, they are at least twice as likely. The study highlights a 'weather whiplash' pattern where above-average winter rainfall promoted biomass growth, followed by extreme heatwaves and drought that dried fuels. The impact was exacerbated by high human exposure due to population growth in the wildland-urban interface and the presence of flammable maritime pine monocultures in France. The fires caused severe air quality degradation, with PM2.5 levels in Bordeaux exceeding 'fair' thresholds by a factor of 20, leading to the first-ever distribution of the French strategic national reserve of FFP2 masks during an ambient pollution episode.
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Document type: Research paper