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Future (im)perfect? Mapping conflict, violence and extremism in Africa
The document analyzes conflict data from 1960 to 2015, noting that while global fatalities from armed conflict generally decline relative to population, Africa maintains a disproportionately high conflict burden. It distinguishes between the 'capacity deficit' in sub-Saharan Africa and the 'inclusion deficit' in the MENA region as primary drivers of instability. The author argues that while violent Islamist extremism receives significant media attention, it accounts for a smaller portion of total political fatalities compared to other forms of violence, such as riots and non-state conflict.
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Document type: Research paper