Search Climate Insights Directory

The author contends that the green energy transition cannot rely on markets alone or the leadership of fossil fuel producers, who lack the incentive to undermine their core business. Instead, the transition must be driven by consumers reducing global demand through policies like carbon pricing. The text outlines four geoeconomic scenarios for this transition: 'survival of the fittest', 'geopolitical preferences', 'green preferences', and 'development preferences', suggesting that the latter two—which prioritize low-carbon footprints and the socio-economic needs of lower-income producers—are the most just and realistic pathways to meeting Paris Agreement goals.

The author argues that Germany is struggling to balance its 'exportist' economic model and corporate interests with a more recent emphasis on a 'rules-based order' and human rights in its foreign policy. Historically, German engagement in Africa has been characterized by a light footprint and a focus on extracting raw materials, such as oil and minerals. The paper suggests that Germany should move away from this extractivist approach and instead support African-led initiatives for domestic resource mobilisation and regional complementarities, particularly through the AfCFTA, to foster a more just and green transition.