Reality Check of a Just Energy Transition

The author contends that the green energy transition cannot rely on markets alone or the leadership of fossil fuel producers, who lack the incentive to undermine their core business. Instead, the transition must be driven by consumers reducing global demand through policies like carbon pricing. The text outlines four geoeconomic scenarios for this transition: 'survival of the fittest', 'geopolitical preferences', 'green preferences', and 'development preferences', suggesting that the latter two—which prioritize low-carbon footprints and the socio-economic needs of lower-income producers—are the most just and realistic pathways to meeting Paris Agreement goals.

• The green energy transition differs from previous energy shifts because it is driven by necessity rather than convenience, meaning it cannot be left to markets alone and must be induced by policy and consciousness.
• The 'supply-side' hypothesis, which expects fossil fuel producers and financiers to lead the transition by cutting production and investing in renewables, is viewed as unrealistic because these companies have no incentive to undermine their core business.
• The 'demand-side' hypothesis argues that consumers must reduce global demand to force producers to adjust, but this is currently hindered by a lack of policy incentives like high carbon pricing outside the EU and the impact of geopolitical conflicts.
• The author identifies four potential geoeconomic narratives for a demand-driven transition: 'Survival of the fittest' (market share goes to rich, low-cost producers), 'Geopolitical preferences' (buying from political allies), 'Green preferences' (buying from producers with the lowest carbon footprints), and 'Development preferences' (prioritizing lower-income producers to help them accumulate capital for green diversification).
• The 'green preferences' and 'development preferences' scenarios are presented as the most manageable and just pathways to achieving the Paris Agreement goals, provided major consumers reduce demand and help developing nations enter green technology value chains.

APA

Peszko, G. (2024). Reality Check of a Just Energy Transition. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/reality-check-of-a-just-energy-transition/

Chicago

Peszko, Grzegorz. Reality Check of a Just Energy Transition. Climate Strategies, 2024. https://climatestrategies.org/reality-check-of-a-just-energy-transition/.

Wikipedia

{{cite press release |last1=Peszko |first1=Grzegorz |title=Reality Check of a Just Energy Transition |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=4 December 2024 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/reality-check-of-a-just-energy-transition/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@misc{peszko2024reality, author = {Peszko, Grzegorz}, title = {{Reality Check of a Just Energy Transition}}, publisher = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2024}, month = dec, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/reality-check-of-a-just-energy-transition/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }