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Dangerous elites
This report argues that political instability and violent protests in South Africa are primarily driven by unmanageable elite contestation within the African National Congress (ANC) rather than spontaneous socio-economic grievances. Using data modelling and artificial intelligence, the authors demonstrate a strong correlation between ANC internal conflicts and protest spikes, particularly from 2018 onwards, while finding a low correlation with service delivery or unemployment trends.
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Document type: Report
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