Human contribution to the record-breaking June 2019 heat wave in France

The study concludes that the June 2019 heat wave in France was made at least five times more likely due to human-induced climate change. Observational data suggests a much higher increase in probability and a temperature rise of approximately 4ºC compared to a century ago, though climate models generally show lower trends and systematic biases in representing heat wave variability.

• The June 2019 heat wave was made at least 5 times more likely due to human-induced climate change, though observational data suggests the increase could be a factor of 100 or more.
• Observational analysis indicates that a heat wave of similar frequency to the June 2019 event would have been approximately 4ºC cooler around 1901.
• In the current climate, a June heat wave defined by the three-day average of daily mean temperature (TG3x) has an estimated return period of 30 years for France and 54 years for Toulouse.
• Climate models exhibit systematic biases in representing June heat waves, specifically overestimating year-on-year variability (the scale parameter) and failing to reproduce the observed shape parameter of the temperature distribution.
• The extreme temperatures were driven by specific dynamical conditions, including a mid-tropospheric “cut-off low” system that transported hot Saharan air into France.
• The study notes that the high warming trend in France during June may be amplified by soil moisture drying, which reduces evaporative cooling in Mediterranean climates.

APA

van Oldenborgh, G. J., Philip, S., Kew, S., Vautard, R., Boucher, O., Otto, F., Haustein, K., Soubeyroux, J.-M., Ribes, A., Robin, Y., Seneviratne, S. I., Vogel, M. M., Stott, P., & van Aalst, M. (n.d.). Human contribution to the record-breaking June 2019 heat wave in France. World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA-Science_France_heat_June_2019.pdf

Chicago

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Robert Vautard, Olivier Boucher, Friederike Otto, Karsten Haustein, et al. Human contribution to the record-breaking June 2019 heat wave in France. World Weather Attribution, n.d. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA-Science_France_heat_June_2019.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{vanoldenborghndhuman, author = {van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and Philip, Sjoukje and Kew, Sarah and Vautard, Robert and Boucher, Olivier and Otto, Friederike and Haustein, Karsten and Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel and Ribes, Aurélien and Robin, Yoann and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Vogel, Martha M. and Stott, Peter and van Aalst, Maarten}, title = {{Human contribution to the record-breaking June 2019 heat wave in France}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA-Science_France_heat_June_2019.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }