Climate change made record breaking early season heat in Argentina and Paraguay about 60 times more likely

The study concludes that anthropogenic climate change made the record-breaking early season heat in northern Argentina and Paraguay approximately 60 times more likely. The analysis focused on the 7-day average of daily maximum temperatures, finding that the 2022 event was an exceptional occurrence that would have been unlikely without human-induced warming. The report also highlights the region's high vulnerability due to urban heat island effects, informal settlements lacking electricity, and the timing of the heatwave before populations had acclimated to summer temperatures.

• Human-induced climate change increased the likelihood of the record-breaking early season heat in northern Argentina and Paraguay by a factor of approximately 60, with a synthesised probability ratio of 60 (35-120).
• The intensity of the heat event attributable to human-induced climate change is estimated at 1.4°C, with a range of 0.8 to 3.4°C.
• The 2022 heatwave was characterized by extreme temperatures, including a recording of 46°C at the Rivadavia station near the border of Bolivia and Paraguay on December 7, making it one of the hottest locations globally that day.
• The heatwave caused significant infrastructure failure in Buenos Aires, where energy shortcuts affected over 500,000 people due to high demand, illustrating that the metropolitan electricity system is nearly seven times more likely to fail during heat events than cold events.
• Vulnerability to heat is exacerbated in Argentina and Paraguay by high rates of urban informality; in Argentina, 1 in 6 people live in informal settlements, and nearly 70% of homes in these neighborhoods lack formal electricity needed for cooling.
• The timing of the event was particularly dangerous as it occurred before the austral summer, meaning populations were likely not yet acclimated to high temperatures.

APA

Rivera, J. A., Arias, P. A., Sörensson, A. A., Zachariah, M., Barnes, C., Philip, S., Kew, S., Vautard, R., Koren, G., Pinto, I., Vahlberg, M., Singh, R., Raju, E., Li, S., Yang, W., Vecchi, G. A., Harrington, L. J., & Otto, F. E. (n.d.). Climate change made record breaking early season heat in Argentina and Paraguay about 60 times more likely. World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA-Argentina-Scientific-report.pdf

Chicago

Rivera, Juan Antonio, Paola A. Arias, Anna A. Sörensson, Mariam Zachariah, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, et al. Climate change made record breaking early season heat in Argentina and Paraguay about 60 times more likely. World Weather Attribution, n.d. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA-Argentina-Scientific-report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rivera |first1=Juan Antonio |last2=Arias |first2=Paola A. |last3=Sörensson |first3=Anna A. |last4=Zachariah |first4=Mariam |last5=Barnes |first5=Clair |last6=Philip |first6=Sjoukje |last7=Kew |first7=Sarah |last8=Vautard |first8=Robert |last9=Koren |first9=Gerbrand |display-authors=etal |title=Climate change made record breaking early season heat in Argentina and Paraguay about 60 times more likely |publisher=World Weather Attribution |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA-Argentina-Scientific-report.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{riverandclimate, author = {Rivera, Juan Antonio and Arias, Paola A. and Sörensson, Anna A. and Zachariah, Mariam and Barnes, Clair and Philip, Sjoukje and Kew, Sarah and Vautard, Robert and Koren, Gerbrand and Pinto, Izidine and Vahlberg, Maja and Singh, Roop and Raju, Emmanuel and Li, Sihan and Yang, Wenchang and Vecchi, Gabriel A. and Harrington, Luke J. and Otto, Friederike E.L.}, title = {{Climate change made record breaking early season heat in Argentina and Paraguay about 60 times more likely}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA-Argentina-Scientific-report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }