Human-caused climate change increased the likelihood of early growing-period frost in France

The analysis finds that while human-caused climate change made the absolute temperatures of the April 2021 frost event less cold, it simultaneously triggered an earlier start to the growing season. This shift exposed young leaves to winter-like conditions, making the 2021 event 20% to 120% more likely. The study notes that in a 2°C warming scenario, such frost events are projected to intensify further by 0.2°C to 0.5°C.

• Human-caused climate change increased the probability of the April 2021 frost event by between 20% and 120%.
• Although human-induced warming would have made the April temperatures approximately 1.2°C higher than observed, it also caused an earlier bud burst (measured by a growing-degree-day index). This earlier start to the growing season outweighed the decrease in cold spells, increasing the vulnerability of young leaves to frost.
• Climate model simulations indicate a cooling of growing-period annual temperature minima of about 0.5°C, though the authors note this figure is a lower bound as the effect is larger in observation-based analysis.
• Under a global warming scenario of 2°C, growing-period frost events similar to those in 2021 are expected to intensify by an additional 0.2°C to 0.5°C compared to current warming levels of approximately 1.2°C.
• The April 2021 event, characterized by daily minimum temperatures below -5°C between 6 and 8 April, followed record-breaking high March temperatures. The French Ministry of Agriculture described the resulting damage to hundreds of thousands of hectares as likely the biggest agricultural disaster of the early 21st century.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2021). Human-caused climate change increased the likelihood of early growing-period frost in France. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-caused-climate-change-increased-the-likelihood-of-early-growing-period-frost-in-france/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Human-caused climate change increased the likelihood of early growing-period frost in France. 2021. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-caused-climate-change-increased-the-likelihood-of-early-growing-period-frost-in-france/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Human-caused climate change increased the likelihood of early growing-period frost in France |date=15 June 2021 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-caused-climate-change-increased-the-likelihood-of-early-growing-period-frost-in-france/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2021humancaused, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Human-caused climate change increased the likelihood of early growing-period frost in France}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2021}, month = jun, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-caused-climate-change-increased-the-likelihood-of-early-growing-period-frost-in-france/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }