Human contribution to the record-breaking July 2019 heat wave in Western Europe

The analysis finds that the July 2019 heat wave in Western Europe was made significantly more likely and more intense by human-induced climate change. In France and the Netherlands, the event would have been extremely unlikely without human influence, with return periods increasing by at least 10 times (and up to a hundred times). In the U.K. and Germany, the likelihood of such an event is estimated to be about 10 times higher (at least 3 times) due to climate change. Across all studied locations, temperatures would have been 1.5 to 3 ºC cooler in an unchanged climate.

• The July 2019 heat wave saw temperatures exceed 40°C in Belgium and the Netherlands for the first time, while the U.K. recorded a new historical daily maximum temperature that surpassed the record from August 2003.
• In France and the Netherlands, the July 2019 heat wave was a rare event with a return period of 50 to 150 years in the current climate; without human-induced climate change, the return periods would have been at least 10 times higher (up to a hundred times), making the event extremely unlikely to occur.
• In Germany and the U.K., the event was less rare, with current return periods of 10 to 30 years, and the likelihood of such an event is at least 3 times (and up to 10 times) higher due to climate change.
• Across all analyzed locations, the observed temperatures would have been between 1.5 and 3 ºC lower if the climate had remained unchanged.
• Climate models used in the study exhibit systematic biases, showing year-to-year variability that is much higher than observations and trends that are approximately 50% smaller than observed trends in this region of Europe.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2019). Human contribution to the record-breaking July 2019 heat wave in Western Europe. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-contribution-to-the-record-breaking-july-2019-heat-wave-in-western-europe/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Human contribution to the record-breaking July 2019 heat wave in Western Europe. 2019. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-contribution-to-the-record-breaking-july-2019-heat-wave-in-western-europe/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Human contribution to the record-breaking July 2019 heat wave in Western Europe |date=2 August 2019 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-contribution-to-the-record-breaking-july-2019-heat-wave-in-western-europe/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2019human, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Human contribution to the record-breaking July 2019 heat wave in Western Europe}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2019}, month = aug, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-contribution-to-the-record-breaking-july-2019-heat-wave-in-western-europe/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }