Human-induced climate change increased drought severity in Southern Horn of Africa

The study finds that while human-induced climate change did not significantly alter the likelihood of the overall 24-month rainfall deficit, it drastically increased drought severity through higher temperatures and evapotranspiration. In a world 1.2°C cooler, the combination of low rainfall and high evapotranspiration observed would not have led to drought; however, in the current climate, it is classified as an 'exceptional drought'. The researchers estimate that such droughts have become approximately 100 times more likely due to climate change.

• The Southern Horn of Africa experienced five consecutive failed rainy seasons from October-December 2020 through March-May 2022, resulting in a drought described as the worst in 40 years. This led to acute food insecurity for over 4 million people, substantial harvest and livestock losses, and the displacement of at least 180,000 refugees from Somalia and South Sudan into Kenya and Ethiopia.
• Analysis of rainfall patterns indicates that human-induced climate change has made low rainfall events during the March-May 'long rains' approximately twice as likely. However, there is no attributable change in likelihood when combining short and long rains over a 24-month period, and short rains have actually shown a trend toward wettening attributable to climate change when accounting for La Niña.
• The severity of the drought was primarily driven by increased evaporative demand caused by higher temperatures. A multivariate analysis shows that the specific combination of low rainfall and high evapotranspiration observed would not have resulted in a drought in a climate 1.2°C cooler; in the current climate, it is categorized as an 'exceptional drought' (D4).
• The study provides a conservative estimate that droughts of this nature have become approximately 100 times more likely due to human-induced climate change.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2023). Human-induced climate change increased drought severity in Southern Horn of Africa. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-induced-climate-change-increased-drought-severity-in-southern-horn-of-africa/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Human-induced climate change increased drought severity in Southern Horn of Africa. 2023. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-induced-climate-change-increased-drought-severity-in-southern-horn-of-africa/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Human-induced climate change increased drought severity in Southern Horn of Africa |date=27 April 2023 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-induced-climate-change-increased-drought-severity-in-southern-horn-of-africa/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2023humaninduced, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Human-induced climate change increased drought severity in Southern Horn of Africa}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2023}, month = apr, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-induced-climate-change-increased-drought-severity-in-southern-horn-of-africa/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }