Human contribution to record-breaking June 2019 heatwave in France

The analysis concludes that human-induced climate change has made the June 2019 heatwave in France more likely and more intense. Observational data suggests that a heatwave of this intensity is occurring at least 10 times more frequently today than a century ago, with temperatures approximately 4C higher. While climate models qualitatively agree on the strong human influence, they show smaller trends and fewer severe heatwaves than observations, simulating a probability increase of between a factor of 2 and 20. The study emphasizes that early-season heatwaves in June have more severe health and organizational impacts than mid-summer events.

• Human-induced climate change has increased the likelihood and intensity of every heatwave currently occurring in Europe, though the specific magnitude depends on the event's definition, location, season, intensity, and duration.
• Observational data indicates that a June heatwave of the intensity seen in 2019 is at least 10 times more frequent now than it was a century ago, and such events would have likely been about 4C cooler around 1901.
• For the average over France, the probability of such a heatwave has increased by at least a factor of five, though observational data suggests the increase could be a factor of 100 or more.
• Climate models generally underestimate the severity and frequency of these heatwaves compared to observations, simulating a probability increase of a factor of 2 to 20 and showing lower temperature trends.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2019). Human contribution to record-breaking June 2019 heatwave in France. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-contribution-to-record-breaking-june-2019-heatwave-in-france/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Human contribution to record-breaking June 2019 heatwave in France. 2019. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-contribution-to-record-breaking-june-2019-heatwave-in-france/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Human contribution to record-breaking June 2019 heatwave in France |date=2 July 2019 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-contribution-to-record-breaking-june-2019-heatwave-in-france/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2019human, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Human contribution to record-breaking June 2019 heatwave in France}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2019}, month = jul, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-contribution-to-record-breaking-june-2019-heatwave-in-france/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }