Extreme downpours increasing in southern Spain as fossil fuel emissions heat the climate

A rapid analysis by World Weather Attribution indicates that heavy 1-day rainfall events in central and southeastern Spain are approximately 12% more intense and twice as likely in the current climate, which is 1.3°C warmer than preindustrial levels. The analysis focuses on the extreme precipitation event of October 29, 2024, which caused devastating floods in regions like Valencia and Catalonia, resulting in over 200 deaths. While the study used daily rainfall data over a large region—potentially underestimating the intensity of localized sub-daily extremes—the findings align with the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship and existing evidence of climate change signals in European rainfall extremes.

• Human-caused climate change has made heavy 1-day rainfall events in central and southeastern Spain approximately 12% more intense and twice as likely to occur in a climate that is 1.3°C warmer than the preindustrial era.
• The extreme rainfall event on October 29, 2024, led to floods that killed more than 200 people, marking the highest death toll for a flood event in Europe since 1967.
• The analysis used the MSWEP dataset to estimate that the daily rainfall over a large region of eastern Spain was a 1 in 20 year event, though this likely underestimates the severity of localized rainfall, such as in Chiva, which received over 400 l/sqm in less than 24 hours.
• The observed increase in rainfall intensity is consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, which posits that a 1°C increase in warming leads to a 7% increase in heavy rainfall due to the atmosphere's ability to hold more moisture.
• The results may be conservative because sub-daily rainfall extremes, which often drive flash floods, are intensifying more strongly than daily extremes—globally by about 20%.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2024). Extreme downpours increasing in southern Spain as fossil fuel emissions heat the climate. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-downpours-increasing-in-southern-spain-as-fossil-fuel-emissions-heat-the-climate/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Extreme downpours increasing in southern Spain as fossil fuel emissions heat the climate. 2024. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-downpours-increasing-in-southern-spain-as-fossil-fuel-emissions-heat-the-climate/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Extreme downpours increasing in southern Spain as fossil fuel emissions heat the climate |date=4 November 2024 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-downpours-increasing-in-southern-spain-as-fossil-fuel-emissions-heat-the-climate/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2024extreme, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Extreme downpours increasing in southern Spain as fossil fuel emissions heat the climate}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2024}, month = nov, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-downpours-increasing-in-southern-spain-as-fossil-fuel-emissions-heat-the-climate/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }