Climate change increased the likelihood of wildfire disaster in highly exposed Los Angeles area

The study finds that human-induced warming from burning fossil fuels made peak January Fire Weather Index (FWI) conditions 35% more probable and 6% more intense. It also notes that the dry season has lengthened by approximately 23 days, increasing the overlap between available fuel and the Santa Ana winds. While climate models show varying results on precipitation trends, the overall evidence indicates that climate change has increased the likelihood of devastating fires in the region, with disproportionate impacts on elderly, disabled, and lower-income populations, including Black residents in Altadena.

• Human-induced climate change, primarily caused by burning fossil fuels, has increased both the probability and intensity of extreme fire weather in the Los Angeles region. In the current climate of 1.3°C global warming, extreme Fire Weather Index (FWI) conditions are expected once every 17 years, representing a 35% increase in likelihood and a 6% increase in intensity compared to a climate 1.3°C cooler.
• The duration of the dry season in Coastal Southern California has extended by approximately 23 days since the global climate was 1.3°C cooler. This extension increases the risk of wildfires by causing the period of high fuel availability to overlap more frequently with the Santa Ana windy season.
• Drought conditions preceding the fires were significantly influenced by climate and atmospheric patterns. Dry seasons in the October-December period are now 2.4 times more likely than in a preindustrial climate, and ENSO conditions further increased this likelihood by a factor of 1.8.
• The wildfires had disproportionate social impacts, particularly affecting the elderly, people with disabilities, and lower-income individuals without vehicles. In Altadena, a neighborhood with a large Black population, the fires destroyed generational wealth for residents who had previously been affected by discriminatory redlining.
• Future projections indicate that if global warming reaches 2.6°C by 2100, peak FWI will intensify by an additional 3% and similar extreme values will become 35% more likely.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2025). Climate change increased the likelihood of wildfire disaster in highly exposed Los Angeles area. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-increased-the-likelihood-of-wildfire-disaster-in-highly-exposed-los-angeles-area/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Climate change increased the likelihood of wildfire disaster in highly exposed Los Angeles area. 2025. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-increased-the-likelihood-of-wildfire-disaster-in-highly-exposed-los-angeles-area/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Climate change increased the likelihood of wildfire disaster in highly exposed Los Angeles area |date=28 January 2025 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-increased-the-likelihood-of-wildfire-disaster-in-highly-exposed-los-angeles-area/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2025climate, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Climate change increased the likelihood of wildfire disaster in highly exposed Los Angeles area}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2025}, month = jan, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-increased-the-likelihood-of-wildfire-disaster-in-highly-exposed-los-angeles-area/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }