Without human-caused climate change, temperatures of 40C in the UK would have been extremely unlikely

The analysis finds that human-caused climate change made the July 2022 UK heatwave, which saw record temperatures of 40.3°C, at least 10 times more likely. Observational data suggests such a heatwave would have been approximately 4°C cooler in preindustrial times, while model-based estimates suggest a 2°C difference in a 1.2°C cooler world. The event was extreme even in the current climate, with some 1-day maximum temperatures having return periods of 1 in 1000 to 1500 years.

• The July 2022 heatwave reached a record maximum temperature of 40.3°C in Coningsby, Lincolnshire, and a provisional record minimum temperature of 25.8°C in Kenley, Surrey.
• Human-induced climate change increased the likelihood of the 2022 heatwave by at least 10 times for both event definitions analyzed.
• Observational analysis indicates that a UK heatwave of this nature would have been approximately 4°C cooler during preindustrial times, whereas climate models estimate it would be about 2°C less hot in a world 1.2°C cooler.
• The event was exceptionally rare even in the current climate: 2-day average temperatures have a return period of approximately 100 years, and 1-day maximum temperatures have a return period of 1 in 1000 years across the analyzed region.
• Specific locations experienced extreme rarity in 1-day maximum temperatures: St James Park in London (1 in 500 years), Durham (1 in 1000 years), and Cranwell, Lincolnshire (1 in 1500 years).
• The heatwave caused at least 13 drowning deaths and increased stress on the NHS and elderly care services, with impacts distributed unequally across demographics and London neighborhoods due to lack of green space, shade, and water.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2022). Without human-caused climate change, temperatures of 40C in the UK would have been extremely unlikely. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/without-human-caused-climate-change-temperatures-of-40c-in-the-uk-would-have-been-extremely-unlikely/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Without human-caused climate change, temperatures of 40C in the UK would have been extremely unlikely. 2022. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/without-human-caused-climate-change-temperatures-of-40c-in-the-uk-would-have-been-extremely-unlikely/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Without human-caused climate change, temperatures of 40C in the UK would have been extremely unlikely |date=28 July 2022 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/without-human-caused-climate-change-temperatures-of-40c-in-the-uk-would-have-been-extremely-unlikely/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2022without, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Without human-caused climate change, temperatures of 40C in the UK would have been extremely unlikely}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2022}, month = jul, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/without-human-caused-climate-change-temperatures-of-40c-in-the-uk-would-have-been-extremely-unlikely/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }