Tropical Forests and Climate Change: The Latest Science

The document argues that tropical forests, mangroves, and peatlands can provide 23 percent of the cost-effective mitigation needed by 2030 to limit warming to 2°C. It highlights that deforestation impacts the climate not only through carbon emissions but also through non-radiative forcings like disrupted water cycles and surface albedo changes, which can lead to hotter and drier conditions locally and continentally. The authors emphasize that while reforestation has high potential, it faces uncertainties regarding land availability and competition with food security, whereas avoiding deforestation provides more certain mitigation benefits.

• Tropical forests, mangroves, and peatlands offer significant cost-effective mitigation potential, capable of providing 23 percent of the total mitigation needed by 2030 to limit global warming to 2°C. This represents nearly two-thirds of the total cost-effective mitigation potential of the global land sector.
• The impact of tropical deforestation on the climate extends beyond carbon dioxide emissions to include other radiative forcings. While deforestation increases surface albedo (a cooling effect), this is outweighed by the warming caused by the loss of reflective aerosols (BVOCs) and the dominant CO2 effect.
• Deforestation causes significant non-radiative climate impacts at local and continental scales by disrupting evapotranspiration and surface roughness. This leads to higher local temperatures and reduced rainfall, with modeling suggesting that complete deforestation in the Amazon could cause regional warming of 2°C and a 15 percent drop in annual rainfall.
• Tropical peatlands, particularly in Indonesia, are critical for climate mitigation due to their massive carbon storage. Draining these peatlands for agriculture, such as oil palm expansion, releases significant CO2; globally, peatland drainage accounts for one-third of cropland emissions despite producing only 1 percent of the world's food.
• There is significant scientific uncertainty regarding the net carbon balance of tropical forests, with different methodologies suggesting they could be a net source, a net sink, or carbon neutral. However, the authors argue that managed tropical forests under the UNFCCC framework are unambiguously a carbon source.
• While reforestation has high mitigation potential, it is subject to greater uncertainty than avoided deforestation due to variables in land availability, sequestration rates, and potential competition with food and fuel needs. Furthermore, large-scale deployment of BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) may conflict with other land-based carbon removal goals.

APA

Wolosin, M., & Harris, N. (2018). Tropical Forests and Climate Change: The Latest Science. World Resources Institute. https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/ending-tropical-deforestation-tropical-forests-climate-change.pdf

Chicago

Wolosin, Michael, and Nancy Harris. Tropical Forests and Climate Change: The Latest Science. World Resources Institute, 2018. https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/ending-tropical-deforestation-tropical-forests-climate-change.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Wolosin |first1=Michael |last2=Harris |first2=Nancy |title=Tropical Forests and Climate Change: The Latest Science |publisher=World Resources Institute |date=June 2018 |url=https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/ending-tropical-deforestation-tropical-forests-climate-change.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{wolosin2018tropical, author = {Wolosin, Michael and Harris, Nancy}, title = {{Tropical Forests and Climate Change: The Latest Science}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, year = {2018}, month = jun, url = {https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/ending-tropical-deforestation-tropical-forests-climate-change.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }