Closing the gap

The G20, responsible for 75% of global GHG emissions, currently has commitments that put the world on a trajectory for 2.4°C of warming. While announced but non-formalized pledges could lower this to 2.1°C, only a comprehensive shift where all G20 members align with 1.5°C pathways and mid-century net zero targets could limit warming to 1.7°C. The report identifies a 23 GtCO2e emissions gap for 2030 and warns that many net zero pledges are unrealistic without significantly stronger near-term (2030) targets. Achieving the 1.5°C goal will require G20 leadership, action from non-G20 countries, and the fulfillment of climate finance commitments to developing nations.

• Current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and legally binding net zero commitments place the world on a trajectory for 2.4°C of warming by the end of the century.
• If G20 countries fully implement additional announced 2030 and net zero pledges that have not yet been formalized in NDCs or binding targets, the projected temperature rise in 2100 could be lowered to 2.1°C. The most significant contributions to this 0.3°C reduction would come from announced net zero pledges from the United States and China, as well as announced 2030 emissions reduction targets from South Africa, Japan, and China.
• If all G20 members adopted mid-century net zero commitments and aligned their NDCs with a 1.5°C pathway, end-of-century global warming could be limited to 1.7°C, closing approximately three-quarters of the temperature gap to the 1.5°C goal.
• There is a significant 2030 emissions gap of 23 GtCO2e between current submitted or announced levels and those consistent with a 1.5°C limit. This gap could be reduced by 40% if G20 governments with existing net zero targets align their 2030 targets with a 1.5°C pathway, and by 64% if all G20 governments do so.
• Many G20 net zero pledges are inconsistent with feasible global modeling pathways because they require excessively steep emissions reductions after 2030. This highlights an urgent need for stronger 2030 NDC targets to ensure the robustness of the path to net zero.
• Several G20 members have failed to strengthen their climate ambition since December 2019. Australia, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Indonesia submitted NDCs that were not meaningfully stronger than previous ones, while Mexico and Brazil submitted 2030 targets that were effectively weaker. China, India, South Africa, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia had not submitted new or updated NDCs as of the report's timeframe.
• Achieving the 1.5°C goal requires action beyond the G20, including ambitious efforts from non-G20 countries and the reduction of emissions from international shipping and aviation.
• Developed G20 countries must increase financial support to developing nations to enable decarbonization and resilience. This includes fulfilling the commitment to mobilize at least $100 billion annually, a goal that has not yet been met, with OECD reporting only $78.9 billion in 2018 and Oxfam estimating $59.5 billion for 2017–2018.

APA

Fyson, C., Geiges, A., Gidden, M., Srouji, J., & Schumer, C. (2021). Closing the gap. World Resources Institute. https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2021-09/closing-the-gap-impact-g20-climate-commitments-limiting-global-temperature-rise-1-5c.pdf?VersionId=RlUJyvgmgnudRbZDDTG_x_nzcG57JMWd

Chicago

Fyson, Claire, Andreas Geiges, Matthew Gidden, Jamal Srouji, and Clea Schumer. Closing the gap. World Resources Institute, 2021. https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2021-09/closing-the-gap-impact-g20-climate-commitments-limiting-global-temperature-rise-1-5c.pdf?VersionId=RlUJyvgmgnudRbZDDTG_x_nzcG57JMWd.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Fyson |first1=Claire |last2=Geiges |first2=Andreas |last3=Gidden |first3=Matthew |last4=Srouji |first4=Jamal |last5=Schumer |first5=Clea |title=Closing the gap |publisher=World Resources Institute |date=September 2021 |url=https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2021-09/closing-the-gap-impact-g20-climate-commitments-limiting-global-temperature-rise-1-5c.pdf?VersionId=RlUJyvgmgnudRbZDDTG_x_nzcG57JMWd |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{fyson2021closing, author = {Fyson, Claire and Geiges, Andreas and Gidden, Matthew and Srouji, Jamal and Schumer, Clea}, title = {{Closing the gap}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, year = {2021}, month = sep, url = {https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2021-09/closing-the-gap-impact-g20-climate-commitments-limiting-global-temperature-rise-1-5c.pdf?VersionId=RlUJyvgmgnudRbZDDTG_x_nzcG57JMWd}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }