Understanding Future Projections

This guide explains the methodology, data sources, and limitations of the World Resources Institute's Aqueduct future projections for water availability and risk, which utilize climate and socioeconomic scenarios to inform long-term water resource management.

• Aqueduct's future projections for indicators such as water supply, use, stress, depletion, and variability are based on the HYPFLOWSCI6 dataset, which incorporates climate forcing data from five different climate models across multiple scenarios.
• The projections utilize three CMIP6 scenarios representing different policy and development pathways: SSP1-RCP2.6 (Optimistic) with a projected temperature rise of 1.3°C to 2.4°C by 2100; SSP3-RCP7.0 (Business as Usual) with 2.8°C to 4.6°C by 2100; and SSP5-RCP8.5 (Pessimistic) with 3.3°C to 5.7°C by 2100.
• To manage uncertainty, Aqueduct uses five General Circulation Models (GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, and UKESM1-0-LL) and displays the median of these models as the central estimate for each scenario.
• Data is spatially aggregated at the HydroBASINS Level 6 sub-basin level and temporally aggregated using a 10-year trailing moving average and Theil-Sen regression for three timeframes: 2030 (2015-2045), 2050 (2035-2065), and 2080 (2065-2095).
• The projections have specific data limitations: crop extent data for irrigation is only projected to 2050, and livestock water demand data has remained constant since 2014, which may lead to an underestimation of future demand.

APA

World Resources Institute (n.d.). Understanding Future Projections. https://www.wri.org/aqueduct/help-center/understanding-future-projections

Chicago

World Resources Institute. Understanding Future Projections. n.d. https://www.wri.org/aqueduct/help-center/understanding-future-projections.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Resources Institute |title=Understanding Future Projections |url=https://www.wri.org/aqueduct/help-center/understanding-future-projections |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldresourcesinstitutendunderstanding, author = {{World Resources Institute}}, title = {{Understanding Future Projections}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, url = {https://www.wri.org/aqueduct/help-center/understanding-future-projections}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }