Decarbonizing China’s Road Transport Sector: Strategies Toward Carbon Neutrality

The study assesses the potential for China's road transport sector to peak greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum demand, estimating that emissions could be reduced by 50-95% by 2060 compared to 2020 levels. It highlights that freight transport requires more significant emission reductions than passenger transport, specifically a cumulative 19,367 million tonnes of CO2eq from 2020 to 2060. The research identifies vehicle electrification, structural changes, and fuel efficiency as critical drivers, with total low-carbon investment needs estimated between CNY 39-83 trillion through 2060.

• Under most scenarios, GHG emissions from China's road transport sector are projected to peak between 2025 and 2035, while petroleum demand would peak between 2024 and 2030. Effective implementation of stated policies could move the emissions peak to before 2030 and petroleum consumption to before 2027, with structural change measures potentially advancing these dates to 2025 and 2024 respectively.
• By 2060, policy interventions could reduce road transport GHG emissions by 50-95% relative to 2020 levels. Achieving the maximum 95% reduction requires a combination of vehicle electrification, structural changes, fuel efficiency improvements, and the decarbonization of power and hydrogen. Additionally, air pollutant emissions are expected to decouple from GHG trajectories and decline steadily following the introduction of the China 6 emission standard.
• Decarbonization efforts must prioritize freight transport, which requires a cumulative GHG reduction of 19,367 million tonnes of CO2eq from 2020 to 2060—more than double the reduction needed for passenger transport. Key requirements for freight include technological advances in refrigerated and long-haul heavy-duty trucks, shifts to waterways and railways, and improved logistic efficiency and statistical data collection.
• Cumulative low-carbon investments for the sector are estimated at CNY 39-83 trillion from 2020 to 2060, with the highest demand occurring between now and 2035. Structural changes are identified as the most cost-effective measure because reducing fleet size lowers the necessary investment in vehicle acquisition, charging and refueling infrastructure, and power and hydrogen generation and transmission.

APA

World Resources Institute (n.d.). Decarbonizing China’s Road Transport Sector: Strategies Toward Carbon Neutrality. https://www.wri.org/research/decarbonizing-chinas-road-transport-sector-strategies-toward-carbon-neutrality

Chicago

World Resources Institute. Decarbonizing China’s Road Transport Sector: Strategies Toward Carbon Neutrality. n.d. https://www.wri.org/research/decarbonizing-chinas-road-transport-sector-strategies-toward-carbon-neutrality.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Resources Institute |title=Decarbonizing China’s Road Transport Sector: Strategies Toward Carbon Neutrality |url=https://www.wri.org/research/decarbonizing-chinas-road-transport-sector-strategies-toward-carbon-neutrality |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldresourcesinstitutenddecarbonizing, author = {{World Resources Institute}}, title = {{Decarbonizing China’s Road Transport Sector: Strategies Toward Carbon Neutrality}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, url = {https://www.wri.org/research/decarbonizing-chinas-road-transport-sector-strategies-toward-carbon-neutrality}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }