Decarbonizing China’s Road Transport Sector: Strategies Toward Carbon Neutrality

This research paper by the World Resources Institute uses LEAP model scenarios to analyze the decarbonization of China's road transport sector, identifying peaking timelines for emissions and petroleum demand, long-term reduction potentials, and the necessary investment scales to reach carbon neutrality by 2060.

• Under most scenarios, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from China's road transport sector are projected to peak between 2025 and 2035, while petroleum demand would peak between 2024 and 2030. Effective implementation of stated policies could move the emissions peak to before 2030 and petroleum consumption to before 2027, with structural change measures potentially advancing these dates to 2025 and 2024 respectively.
• Policy interventions could reduce road transport GHG emissions by 50-95% by 2060 compared to 2020 levels. Achieving the maximum 95% reduction requires a combination of vehicle electrification, structural changes, fuel efficiency improvements, and the decarbonization of power and hydrogen. Additionally, air pollutant emissions are expected to decouple from GHG trajectories and decline steadily following the China 6 emission standard.
• Decarbonizing the road transport sector requires cumulative low-carbon investments between CNY 39 trillion and 83 trillion from 2020 to 2060, with the highest demand occurring between the present and 2035. Freight transport presents a greater challenge than passenger transport, requiring a cumulative reduction of 19,367 million tonnes of CO2eq from 2020 to 2060 relative to the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario—more than double the reduction needed for passenger transport.

APA

World Resources Institute (n.d.). Decarbonizing China’s Road Transport Sector: Strategies Toward Carbon Neutrality. https://www.wri.org/research/decarbonizing-chinas-road-transport-sector-strategies-toward-carbon-neutrality

Chicago

World Resources Institute. Decarbonizing China’s Road Transport Sector: Strategies Toward Carbon Neutrality. n.d. https://www.wri.org/research/decarbonizing-chinas-road-transport-sector-strategies-toward-carbon-neutrality.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Resources Institute |title=Decarbonizing China’s Road Transport Sector: Strategies Toward Carbon Neutrality |url=https://www.wri.org/research/decarbonizing-chinas-road-transport-sector-strategies-toward-carbon-neutrality |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldresourcesinstitutenddecarbonizing, author = {{World Resources Institute}}, title = {{Decarbonizing China’s Road Transport Sector: Strategies Toward Carbon Neutrality}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, url = {https://www.wri.org/research/decarbonizing-chinas-road-transport-sector-strategies-toward-carbon-neutrality}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }