CUTTING BILLS AND CREATING JOBS THE ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES OF THE CLEAN ENERGY TRANSITION

The report examines the economic opportunities of transitioning to net-zero emissions by 2050 across several major economies. It argues that public investment can drive innovation and growth through signalling, crowding-in private capital, and reducing unit costs. While fossil fuel-exporting nations like the US, Canada, and Indonesia may face long-term GDP losses as global demand for hydrocarbons falls, the report finds that most subject economies—including the EU, UK, India, Japan, and South Africa—experience net gains in GDP and employment. The transition is predicted to significantly reduce household expenditure on fossil fuels, improve public health by reducing pollution, and enhance energy security, particularly for the EU in the context of reducing dependence on Russian gas.

• Public investment drives the green transition through three primary mechanisms: signalling long-term commitment to economic actors, creating a 'crowding-in effect' that reduces risk and cost of capital for private investors, and using large-scale procurement to drive down unit costs through 'learning by doing'.
• The transition creates economic gains through two channels: direct increases in activity within green technology sectors (production, installation, and maintenance) and indirect gains from reduced energy costs for consumers, which increases disposable income and stimulates broader consumption.
• Economies that export fossil fuels face a structural trade-off; while they may see initial gains from green investment, they will eventually experience losses in output and employment as global demand for fossil fuels declines.
• In the United States, the transition is projected to result in mixed outcomes: GDP is estimated to be 1.9% higher than the baseline in 2025, but the economy may face losses by 2050, with discounted GDP losses between 2022 and 2036 estimated at 4.5 trillion USD (2020USD).
• For the European Union, the green transition is viewed as a tool for both decarbonisation and energy security, specifically to reduce dependence on Russian gas. Modelling suggests that achieving a 55% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 could increase GDP by 0.2-0.5% compared to a 'do-nothing' scenario.
• In the United Kingdom, meeting the Sixth Carbon Budget through investments in renewables, hydrogen, and carbon capture is predicted to increase GDP by 2-3% above the baseline in the medium- and long-term, creating a net 300,000 additional jobs.
• Developing economies like India and South Africa are projected to see significant early economic boosts from the transition. India's GDP is modelled to be 9.9% above baseline in 2025, while South Africa's GDP is projected to be 6.4% above baseline in 2030.
• The transition is expected to drastically reduce household expenditure on fossil fuels across all modelled countries by 2050, though this is partially offset by increased spending on electricity due to the electrification of heating and transport.
• Beyond macroeconomic metrics, the transition provides substantial non-economic benefits, including reduced premature deaths from improved air quality and enhanced quality of life through more efficient home heating and cooling.

APA

Nevin, C., Pirie, J., & Stenning, J. (2022). CUTTING BILLS AND CREATING JOBS THE ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES OF THE CLEAN ENERGY TRANSITION. We Mean Business Coalition. https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Fullreport_EconomicOpportunitiesCleanEnergy.pdf

Chicago

Nevin, Ciarán, Jamie Pirie, and Jon Stenning. CUTTING BILLS AND CREATING JOBS THE ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES OF THE CLEAN ENERGY TRANSITION. We Mean Business Coalition, 2022. https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Fullreport_EconomicOpportunitiesCleanEnergy.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Nevin |first1=Ciarán |last2=Pirie |first2=Jamie |last3=Stenning |first3=Jon |title=CUTTING BILLS AND CREATING JOBS THE ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES OF THE CLEAN ENERGY TRANSITION |publisher=We Mean Business Coalition |date=June 2022 |url=https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Fullreport_EconomicOpportunitiesCleanEnergy.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{nevin2022cutting, author = {Nevin, Ciarán and Pirie, Jamie and Stenning, Jon}, title = {{CUTTING BILLS AND CREATING JOBS THE ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES OF THE CLEAN ENERGY TRANSITION}}, institution = {We Mean Business Coalition}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Fullreport_EconomicOpportunitiesCleanEnergy.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }