Shifting Global Value Chains: The India Opportunity

The report argues that shifts in global value chains (GVCs), accelerated by COVID-19, emerging technologies, and climate change, create a window for India to emerge as a manufacturing hub. It identifies India's strengths in domestic demand, government drive, and demographics, while noting urgent needs for job creation and trade deficit reduction. The paper proposes five pathways: scaling to global magnitude, shifting from cost arbitrage to capability, accelerating GVC integration, improving ground-level execution, and focusing on infrastructure outcomes. Implementing these could add over $500 billion to India's annual economic impact by 2030.

• The manufacturing sector in India could provide an incremental annual economic contribution of approximately $500 billion by 2030, potentially increasing its share of GDP to 19-20%.
• Three pre-pandemic megatrends—emerging technologies, climate change/environmental sustainability, and the reconfiguration of globalization—along with the COVID-19 pandemic, are driving the transition of global value chains (GVCs).
• India possesses three primary assets to attract manufacturing: a large potential domestic market (projected to grow from $1.5 trillion in 2019 to $6.0 trillion by 2030), government initiatives like 'Make in India' and 'Atmanirbhar Bharat', and a demographic advantage as the world's most abundant labour force by 2030.
• India faces critical socio-economic pressures to grow its manufacturing sector to create over 100 million new jobs by 2030, ensure more equitable growth for low-to-semi-skilled workers, and reduce a trade deficit that has hovered around $180 billion in recent years.
• India must shift from relying on labour cost arbitrage to building a 'capability advantage' because advanced manufacturing technologies (AI, robotics, 3D printing) are reducing the importance of low-cost labour, and other nations like Bangladesh, Viet Nam, Cambodia, and Myanmar are offering lower costs.
• Despite improvements in the Ease of Doing Business Index, ground-level execution remains a major barrier due to a complex administrative maze; mid-sized companies may face between 5,000 and 10,000 compliances annually.
• India's infrastructure requires a shift from focusing on inputs to outcomes, particularly in utilities where commercial and industrial power tariffs are 15-35% higher than peers like China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Viet Nam.

APA

World Economic Forum (2021). Shifting Global Value Chains: The India Opportunity. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Shifting_Global_Value_Chains_2021.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Shifting Global Value Chains: The India Opportunity. 2021. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Shifting_Global_Value_Chains_2021.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Shifting Global Value Chains: The India Opportunity |date=June 2021 |url=http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Shifting_Global_Value_Chains_2021.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2021shifting, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Shifting Global Value Chains: The India Opportunity}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2021}, month = jun, url = {http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Shifting_Global_Value_Chains_2021.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }