Scenarios for Mongolia

The report analyzes Mongolia's economic vulnerability due to its heavy reliance on copper and coking coal exports to China. It presents three scenarios—Regional Renaissance, China Greening, and Resource Tensions—to evaluate how different geopolitical and environmental trajectories will impact the country's ability to manage its mineral wealth and diversify its economy by 2040.

• Mongolia's economy is highly susceptible to external shocks because it depends on exporting two primary commodities, copper and coking coal, almost exclusively to China.
• The mining sector is the dominant driver of the economy, accounting for nearly 90% of exports, and the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine alone is projected to contribute 30% of Mongolia's GDP once fully operational.
• In the 'Regional Renaissance' scenario, increased political and economic integration in North-East Asia would allow Mongolia to expand its customer base and diversify into oil, gas, financial services, and industrial agriculture.
• The 'China Greening' scenario envisions a shift toward a circular economy in China, which would reduce demand for traditional minerals but create new opportunities for Mongolia in organic foods, eco-tourism, and renewable energy technologies like solar and wind.
• The 'Resource Tensions' scenario describes a fragmented region where natural resources are used as political leverage, making it difficult for Mongolia to access finance and markets, though it could carve out a role as a neutral neighbor.
• To mitigate the risk of 'Dutch disease' and the 'resource curse,' the report suggests establishing a sovereign wealth fund that can function as both an investment fund to prevent overheating and a development fund for domestic investment.
• Economic diversification is currently limited, with non-mineral exports accounting for only 12% of total exports in 2013, and the manufacturing sector representing only 5% of GDP in the first half of that year.

APA

World Economic Forum (2014). Scenarios for Mongolia. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_ScenariosSeries_Mongolia_Report_2014.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Scenarios for Mongolia. 2014. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_ScenariosSeries_Mongolia_Report_2014.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Scenarios for Mongolia |date=January 2014 |url=http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_ScenariosSeries_Mongolia_Report_2014.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2014scenarios, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Scenarios for Mongolia}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2014}, month = jan, url = {http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_ScenariosSeries_Mongolia_Report_2014.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }