India and the World: Scenarios to 2025

The report presents three divergent scenarios for India's trajectory to 2025: 'Pahale India' (India First), where inclusive growth and systemic reforms lead to global leadership; 'Bolly World', where initial export-led success masks a failure to reform, leading to eventual economic reversal; and 'Atakta Bharat' (India getting stuck), where corruption and political stalemate result in low growth and social instability. The analysis emphasizes that India's success depends on balancing internal development—specifically in education, rural infrastructure, and governance—with its strategic global and regional integration.

• The 'Pahale India' scenario envisions a future where India becomes a respected global power by prioritizing inclusive development through 'the Six Pillars of India’s Future': poverty alleviation, agriculture and rural development, healthcare, access to education, leapfrogging infrastructure constraints, and effective governance.
• In the 'Bolly World' scenario, India experiences early economic success driven by IT and knowledge-intensive sectors, but fails to implement structural reforms, leading to unsustainable growth and a subsequent economic slump after 2015.
• The 'Atakta Bharat' scenario describes a state of stagnation where corruption, political stalemate, and a lack of leadership result in growth returning to the sluggish 'Hindu rate of growth' of the 1980s, with GDP growth potentially dipping to 4% by 2015.
• Water security is identified as a critical risk; the report notes that by 2005, over 75% of the rural population lacked public water supply, and over-exploitation of groundwater had already permanently exhausted reserves in states including Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, and Rajasthan.
• The report highlights the potential for a 'demographic bonus' if India can reform its education system, noting that in 2005, adult female literacy was 46%, significantly lower than China's 89%.
• Energy security is addressed through the concept of 'peace-pipelines' in the 'Pahale India' scenario, specifically a 2,670 km pipeline from Iran through Pakistan to India that could supply up to 45% of India's medium-term natural gas needs.
• The report suggests that India's energy transition could involve leveraging indigenous uranium and thorium reserves via Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) technology and deploying decentralized solar, wind, and biomass solutions for rural communities.
• In the 'Atakta Bharat' scenario, the failure of the state leads to the 'barefoot revolution', where communities use traditional knowledge and technology to self-organize, such as the Hyderabad GM Crop Collective founded in 2019.

APA

World Economic Forum (2005). India and the World: Scenarios to 2025. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenario_IndiaWorld2025_Report_2010.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. India and the World: Scenarios to 2025. 2005. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenario_IndiaWorld2025_Report_2010.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=India and the World: Scenarios to 2025 |date=2005 |url=http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenario_IndiaWorld2025_Report_2010.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2005india, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{India and the World: Scenarios to 2025}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2005}, url = {http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenario_IndiaWorld2025_Report_2010.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }